This is interesting and timely research. One of he areas that seemed under researched with regard to "probability, or prove-ability" involves motive. Depending on the age of the child and his/her exposure to manipulating influences, the possibility always exists that they fabricate the alleged abuse as a means of exercising power or control over an adult.
The motivation could be vengeance, fear, or apathetic curiosity, among others. The. single edge sword of disclosure exposes genuine caregivers and perpetrators alike to the same justice system with the same resultant impact if the allegation is determined to be unsubstantiated, or false.
There must be a more reliable method for deterministic purposes.
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