Meditation on Change and politics

Change is delayed

Progress doesn’t always happen in a straight line. The virtue of the two party system is that nobody can take the electorate for granted. Goldwater caused a revival of GOP energy and led to the election of Richard Nixon. But after Watergate the Republicans lost power and not until 1994 were they able to recapture the House. Bill Clinton’s hopes that a friendly legislature would help him to implement his forward looking policies were frustrated in that midterm election. Each time, the agenda had to be changed. The liberal ambitions of the Democratic leaders had to wait until they could enact those laws in Congress.

The balance of power can lead to frustration for groups that hope to see change. Hispanics hoped for a change towards Cuba, during the Clinton years. It didn’t happen. Gays had hoped that Obama’s victory and the control of Congress for Democrats would help pass federal laws to protect gay marriage. That is not happening.

In 2006 the Democrats captured the House and that factor probably influenced the outcome of the presidential election in 2008. Barack Obama could look at members of his own party to support his policies in Congress. The first year would be a productive year like it was for Lyndon Johnson after 1964. His economic aid package passed, but his critics are waiting to see the results and so far nobody it too optimistic.

Nancy Pelosi may have helped to pass the healthcare bill that is moving through the legislature, but she is not influential enough or well liked by the opposition. Senate ratification may be more difficult becuase there are items that are not palatable to one side or tghe other.

Republicans and Democrats will have to work together to enact the legislation before them to reform healthcare. And one would think that Democratic politicians should feel secure with a Democrat in the White House. But Obama’s support cannot save Democratic candidates who might lose in the 2010 elections. And those who fear the reaction of the electorate might not be willing to risk angering them by supporting a bill that includes fuding abortion and might grant health insurance to illegal aliens.

For those reasons and many others we can safely predict that the election of 2010 will not make Democrats happy. But there are no Republican leaders on the national stage with the charisma to attract those disatisfied with the present course. And we are all clinging to the one thing that keeps us going: a hope for change.