119

                                                     “119”

                                       

31 December 2008



Six dozen men, thought the chief saboteur on 31 December 2008, just 72 men to overturn an empire.  The Christian scriptures claimed one dozen men had changed the world 2000 years ago; now six dozen would accomplish in one night what millions had dreamed of for centuries, the fall of Western Civilization.  While waiting for the eve of the New Year to pass, the chief of saboteurs now reviewed the events and planning of the previous 5 years as the martyrs gathered.

This would be a bloodless coup he thought; no one would die this night, at least not intentionally.  The plan was that good, he believed; they would disarm the Western serpent by sapping its energy and morale, there would be no need to crush the monster.  More ironic was the weapon that would be used to cripple the infidels, had been sold to them right here in America.  There had been no need to smuggle in weapons of mass destruction.

Thinking back, he reviewed the evolution of a plan hatched in the Pashtun lands of Pakistan, by a brother who had grown disgusted with the decadence of America.  A bean counter, not a warrior had prepared this attack to destroy the influence of America.  The Economist had lived and taught economics at an American University for 20 years, before returning to the land of his faith to fight the Jihad against America. 

The Economist hated Western Civilization, as a child he had watched the Americans use their money to corrupt his homeland.  The American workers, guests in his country but acting as if they owned the nation; often treated him with disdain.  He was just another turban head in their eyes.  He was amazed by the American presumption of wealth, as if the laws of nature did not apply to their country. 

His government had sent him to an American University to learn the ways of Western business, and for a while he had compromised his beliefs and had a fallen in love with an American woman. She had led him through the bars and disco life of decadence, but the birth of his children had led him back to his faith and a subsequent divorce.  He had attempted to teach his children the traditions of his faith; but his agnostic wife retained custody of the children and the Economist only had visitation privileges every other weekend.  This brief period of exposure to his children could not counter the hedonistic lifestyle of his ex-wife.

Frustrated with the declining influence he had in his children’s lives, he returned to his homeland to start a new life in the traditional ways of his Father.  Over time he had learned his children were being educated in an American University, and had deserted the faith of his father.  Because of their agnostic views, he had abandoned contact with the infidels of his own blood. 

This scar on his heart had led him to seek revenge against a society that stopped a father from raising his children in the traditions of his homeland.  This scar and loneliness had created hate, which had led the Economist to offer his services to al Qaeda, in the hope of gaining revenge against a secular civilization which had condemned his own children.  His twenty years of teaching economics had given him insights into the growing frailty of western business, and now was the time to exploit that frailty.

Having watched America become the largest debtor nation on Earth, the Economist had realized that it was dollars, not bullets that were the real weapons with which to destroy American influence among the nations.  The American economy had been seriously weakened after 30 years of deficit spending, job losses to Asia, the legacy costs of an aging population and now an unending war against terrorism that was slowly bleeding the United States of its lifeblood; money.

While living the American dream, he had realized how poorly prepared the Americans were for a war on their homeland, and 911 had proven that America was vulnerable.  Unguarded infrastructure lay scattered throughout the nation.  Much of the telecommunications, transportation networks, and energy distribution grids were wide open for attack.  But America did have one advantage, its size; and a single attack on one target such as the World Trade Center had little strategic impact upon a mammoth Nation. 

911 had provoked more anger than al Qaeda expected, and they had been mauled in Afghanistan and Iraq by the American military.  The key word was mauled, they had not been destroyed; and al Qaeda had persevered in the caves and villages of the Afghan and Pakistan tribal regions.  And now they were ready to strike back.

There had been many arguments in those caves about how best to strike America; the majority view had been to kill as many Americans as possible, but others suggested more damaging scenarios.  The “kill as many as possible”, [KAMAP] view was conceived by passion, not intellect, and KAMAP would only further arouse an angry America to use all of its resources to destroy Al Qaeda.

The KAMAP strategy had also failed in Iraq.  Attempting to intimidate unfaithful brothers with indiscriminate killing had only strengthened the resolve of Iraqis opposed to al Qaeda’s dream of an Islamic Caliphate governing all those who submitted.  With their American allies, the Iraqi secularists were taking a heavy toll on al Qaeda brethren committed to the struggle for Baghdad.

No, if al Qaeda hoped to win this 1300 year old war in the 21st century, they would have to find some way to damage America’s engine of war.  They could not hope to defeat the American military on the open battlefield, so they would have to take away America’s ability to support and deploy that war making capability.

Beginning in 2004, the Economist began to look for economic linchpins, that if disrupted would seriously damage America’s ability to make war.  The Economist had realized that America depended on an aging infrastructure to support the economy, and if the infrastructure could be disabled for only a few months, the American economy would grind to a halt.  He had speculated that if the President could not protect the homeland, the American people would demand that the overextended American Army be brought home to protect the suffering Americans. 

When the glorious day dawned on the holy lands; free of defilement from infidels, then al Qaeda would only have to deal with the corrupt and unpopular Middle Eastern governments that were preventing the establishment of a new Caliphate.  Conquering the world could wait for the next generation of true believers.

The Economist had been determined to find the essential infrastructure system that was vulnerable to attack and difficult to repair or replace.  He had considered taking down telecommunications towers and cutting phone lines, but even if communication was reduced to letters and radio signals, the Americans would adjust and the economy would still function.  The transportation net was too redundant and hardened; with highways, railroads, aircraft transport and river barges too numerous to be effectively attacked.  But the electrical grid, now there might be a target of opportunity, he had reasoned.

It was widely known that an electrical grid is a fragile but easily repaired system, so without destroying the generating capacity it is difficult to damage a large section of the grid for any length of time.  Destroying the dams and power plants would require large bombs placed very closely to the generators.  Even with suicide bombers, it would be unlikely such an attack could be executed without discovery.

To attack the electrical generating capacity of America would require extensive surveillance, the purchase of large amounts of fertilizer, obtaining large vehicles, and finally penetrating the fences and defenders of the power stations.  There were just too many operations that would arouse suspicion.

Nevertheless, the grid remained a tempting target; too tempting to ignore.  The Economist recalled a news story from the summer of 2003 when much of the northeastern United States went dark for several days when a storm disabled electric lines, and an electrical substation in Ohio; which subsequently caused a cascade of electrical outages that took many days to repair. That event had proven the grid was vulnerable; the key now was to find a way to take out the American electrical grid for a few months.

The Economist had become a trusted member of al Qaeda by wisely safe-guarding their money for many years.  This gave him access to technical specialists serving al Qaeda in numerous fields such as nuclear and chemical warfare, financial, and communications specialties.

The Economist consulted an electrical engineer who had worked for western utility companies and had extensive knowledge of power plants.  He had sought him out to find critical and vulnerable segments in the electrical grid.

The Electrician also understood the opportunity to paralyze America by destroying the North American electrical grid.  He quickly outlined the possibilities to take down the grid, but he identified a weakness not apparent to most terrorists.

The Electrician had explained how transformers are used throughout the grid to step up and step down electrical voltage for power distribution.  Power plants cannot produce enough voltage for long distance transmission of electricity, so very large transformers located near the power plants step up the electricity to 350,000 volts. These transformers step up the voltage by wrapping charged electrical windings around iron cores that must be cooled.  Some transformers are air cooled and others are chilled by oil like coolants that can absorb and dissipate excessive heat generated by the changing voltages. 

If the transformers are punctured and the oil leaks, the liquid cooled systems will quickly overheat, catch fire, and fail.  If the windings and iron cores can be destroyed in the air cooled systems, these will also stop functioning.  If a critical number of transformers fail simultaneously, electricity cannot be transmitted and the electrical distribution grid collapses.  Large transformers take time to repair or replace, and cannot be quickly manufactured.  Destruction of a significant number of transformers might disrupt the grid for many weeks.  The Electrician recalled that large transformers took many months to arrive after a purchase order was placed.

This seemed to be the linchpin the Economist needed, now he had to find a way to destroy them efficiently.  The Electrician had suggested they consult some of the satellite images of the United States on the internet to find an example of a target.  Following the Ohio River on a satellite display, he had quickly found a very large coal fired plant.  The large cooling towers were easy to spot; they used the river water to cool the generators. 

Pointing out the step up transformers, it was obvious the incompetent Americans had not made any effort to protect these critical devices.  The Electrician also noted that many substations are vulnerable all across America.  The substations generally step down voltages to local distribution networks that serve individual cities and regions.  The regional substations are also very important, as electricity cannot be distributed efficiently or safely without decreasing the voltage to a local grid. These too could be attacked, creating more chaos for the Americans to deal with in a darkened nation.

After this exploratory meeting, the Economist had recalled the transformers only have to be punctured, but the damage must be of such severity they cannot be temporarily patched.  He needed to speak with a soldier, someone who would know the right weapon for the job.

Al Qaeda’s veterans had many years of combat experience, first battling the Soviet Union in the first Afghan war and then the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan.  They had experience with many types of arms, both Russian and American weapons from this world of war.

After listening to his plan, a one-armed Soldier had given the Economist various options.  They could use explosives he had explained, but they would have to get very close to the target and the risk of capture would increase.  There was also the added risk of the electrical field prematurely detonating the explosives and killing the saboteurs.

If the transformers only have to be punctured, the Soldier had suggested a sniper rifle might do the job.  If significant damage to the internal capacity of the device is required, or walls have to be punctured, the soldier recommended a larger caliber weapon.  A sniper rifle would not draw as much attention as an explosion, and would allow significant stand-off capability for the saboteur.  This would increase his odds of escaping and striking other targets, or getting away completely they had reasoned.  The Economist favored this approach; reasonable odds of escape would allow easier recruitment of saboteurs.

The Soldier had then bragged about a “fifty cal” rifle that could hit a pumpkin more than 1000 meters away and an object the size of a television at 2 kilometers.  Al Qaeda had captured a few of the .50 caliber sniper weapons the Americans were using in Afghanistan and Iraq.  A fifty cal can penetrate the armor of a HUMVEE, so destroying a large transformer with a few rounds will be no problem; plus, “it can easily be hidden in the trunk of a car”, he had explained.

The Soldier believed this would be a good weapon for the plan.  One saboteur could drive from substation to substation, firing a few rounds from either a few city blocks away or across open country in rural areas.  Then just simply drive away. 

He had then asked the old Soldier how the weapons could be smuggled into America.  The Economist had feared that if the saboteurs were caught with these weapons, the Americans might learn of the plan and place shielding around the transformers.

“There would be no need to smuggle in the weapons”, the soldier had explained to the astonished Economist; “civilians can purchase them legally in America.  If you are a citizen without a criminal history, it is not any different than purchasing a hunting rifle.”  The Soldier had recommended that each sabotage group purchase only one rifle from private sellers, as multiple purchases might arouse suspicion. 

“Perfect concluded the Economist, a weapon that will do the job and the Americans will sell it to us for eight thousand dollars per gun.  What a country” he had laughed, now the theory had the potential to be exploited.

Another old American news story had also given him encouragement.  It had taken the Americans months to find John Mohamed and his accomplice, commonly known as the DC snipers.  The pair of murderers had killed many Americans in very congested areas and had just driven away. 

The Economist had envisioned a sabotage plan carried out very late at night and often in isolated areas. The attack would have the added benefit of creating a diversion as the electricity would fail and the area would go dark. Without fatalities, the police would initially treat this as simple property destruction.  It would take the Americans a few hours to understand how the entire electrical grid was being attacked.

A theory to disable America had now been created, but an operational plan is much more difficult than a Hollywood movie script.  Assembling a capable band of saboteurs, infiltrating the American homeland, surveying and determining the correct targets, obtaining the weapons and ammunition, supporting the team and maintaining secure communications to prevent discovery would be a great challenge.

One advantage that al Qaeda still held was adequate funding.  Americans had been unable to discipline their oil usage after 30 years of warnings.  Instead of taxing imported oil and allowing a more expensive but protected energy market to create new technology for conservation and energy supplies, the Americans had counted on a purely free energy market to power their economy.  Middle East oil would always be the cheapest and most abundant energy available and the Americans had shortsightedly taken the most profitable route to prosperity, at the risk of energy dependence on unstable suppliers. 

As a result, America was now sending hundreds of billions of dollars a year to the kings and sheiks of the Middle East in exchange for oil. A portion of the bountiful supply of money exchanged with America and Europe for oil still continued to find its way into al Qaeda coffers. 

This money allowed al Qaeda to pay and support warriors willing to sacrifice their lives for the Brotherhood.  Living in caves and huts in the mountains of Pakistan created very little overhead for the organization.  Money would not be an obstacle in mounting this operation.

Unlike al Qaeda, America was also spending money to protect Middle East oil supplies and prosecute the War on Terror.  Hundreds of billions of dollars that the Americans were borrowing from foreign investors to power their own “engine of war.”

         

Part II    Initial Planning Conference



The next step was to submit an executive summary to al Qaeda’s operations division for further consideration.  Like all good plans, it had been a short summary, and after review the Economist had been summoned to present his plan in more detail to al Qaeda’s command element.

His audience had included the G1 (personnel), G2 (intelligence), G3 (Operations), G4 (Logistics) and G6 (Communications).  These were skeptical men, they had heard many poorly conceived ideas to attack America, and too many others had failed.  (Having been trained by the American CIA in the first Afghan war’ the mujahedeen had copied the American military organization for planning).

The Economist initially laid out his theory that if the American economy could be disabled for 3 months, their tremendous debt would act as a tripwire to detonate American society.  “The United States government owes the world’s citizens eleven trillion dollars” he had emphasized; “the Americans have mortgaged twenty percent of the total value of their nation.”  “The dollar has been losing value against other currencies, and if al Qaeda can even briefly disrupt the economy, the value of their currency will continue to weaken.  If OPEC should then refuse to accept dollars as payment for oil, the Americans will have no choice but to print money to pay for oil. Printing money; or injecting liquidity as the American Federal Reserve Bank liked to report, would cause further inflation.  These economic consequences will seriously injure their economy, further weakening the American War on Terror”.

The Economist then explained his opposition to further massacres that will only frighten the American public and harden the resolve of the American military to destroy al Qaeda.  “Listen” he had explained; “the American public has not suffered on a wide scale to this point, a few thousand Americans have died and there families grieve, but millions of Americans have just ignored the War on Terror. 

Even if we could kill fifty thousand Americans with a small nuclear weapon, the vast majority will be untouched by a single weapon.  America lost the entire city of New Orleans for a year, but the country continued to function.”

He had argued that even if many nuclear weapons could be smuggled into North America, and millions of American civilians killed, the outrage would be so great that America would feel justified to loose its entire arsenal to kill millions of the faithful, and threaten all of Islam to destroy al Qaeda.  “KAMAP is a dead end strategy to achieve our goal of forcing the West out of the world of Islam,” he had argued.

“The best way,” he had urged, is to disable the one factor that powers every aspect of American life; electricity.  If we attack in the winter and Americans cannot heat their homes and schools, millions will suffer from cold.  If they cannot flush their toilets, the stench from their excrement will choke their politicians.  Without pumps, they cannot take showers and their cities will reek of their bodies,” he had emphasized.  If they cannot preserve and cook their food, within two weeks millions will go hungry.

If they cannot power their office buildings and factories, they will not be able to earn money or pay taxes.  Without income and taxes they will not be able to service their private and public debt, and their interest on the debt paid to their creditors will rise significantly. 

While they are going cold, smelly, and hungry, we will begin to transmit terms of disengagement to the Americans.  Al Qaeda will only demand that America leave Dar al-Islam, [World of Peace] and we will stop our attacks on Dar al-Harb [World of War]; at least temporarily,” he had insisted.

By the conclusion of his outline, the Economist’s arguments had convinced his colleagues that Americans were now so weak-willed that they would give up democracy before giving up their electricity.  “Even after 911, many Americans strongly disagreed with this war on terror,” he had insisted; “if we give them reasonable terms to withdraw from Dar al-Islam, their politicians will have no choice but to comply.”

“Asymmetrical warfare is a very cost effective means to destroy America,” he had emphasized.  “This operation will cost al Qaeda about 5 to 10 million dollars,” he had explained, “but it will cost America perhaps a trillion dollars if their economy can be disabled for 3 months.  More importantly, it may destroy their credit worthiness.”

After having listened to his theory, the head of operations encouraged the Economist to further elaborate his plan.  The G3 was enticed by the idea of destroying American morale and economy to win the war of terror.

           The Economist then displayed a print of the American power plant on the Ohio River.  Pointing out the linchpin targets, he then explained his plan for attacking the generator transformers and substations.

         Having researched the American electrical grid, his study group believed that the destruction of 150 to 200 electrical substation transformers would collapse the grid.  If they could also destroy all transformers at 300 major generating plants, America might have an electricity shortage for months. 

Tesla and other transformer manufacturers were capable of producing 100 large transformers per month, and it would take some time to ramp up production after the attack.  “If we are successful,” he had emphasized, “it should be possible to darken America for 8 to 12 weeks, and create shortages for several more months, enough time to seriously weaken the economy, but more importantly, destroy American morale to continue this long war.”



                                 Part III  Organizational Planning



Step 1 was to contact the existing Safe Houses in America, and determine the maximum number of saboteurs that could be protected in these domiciles.  Al Qaeda had stopped using all forms of electronic communications, except when they wished to decoy the Americans.  They now simply relied on regular mail to contact their operatives around the world.  Though slower, regular mail had been determined to be the most secure form of communication to America. 

After all, this war had been going on for 1300 years, so they could afford to be patient.  Time was on their side.  Over time it had been determined that 6 to 7 dozen saboteurs could be safely housed while the plan was set into motion.  To ensure system integrity, al Qaeda mailed false plans to the Safe Houses and waited for leaks or an American response to the decoy plans.  No breech in security was detected.

Step 2 consisted of infiltrating the American homeland.  This was the most dangerous aspect of the operation.  American security had become much better at securing the border crossings, but al Qaeda still routinely smuggled in agents and money across the Canadian frontier and Mexican borders.  They were also using charter boats to move agents into the American southeast.  It was a well known fact that American charter fishing boats had been moving Caribbean migrants from the Bahamas into the United States.  Al Qaeda had been infiltrating single agents for years, simply to determine the safest routes of infiltration.

Al Qaeda had also been teaching the Spanish language and Latino culture to more than 100 agents over the past 2 years, so they could take advantage of similarities in appearance of Southwest Asians and Latin Americans.  Passing themselves off as poor immigrants looking for work in the United States, it was hoped they could remain incognito by remaining camouflaged in the masses of immigrants attempting to enter the United States.  In this manner they would not be interrogated if captured, only documented and returned to Mexico.  From Mexico they would return to their base of operations.  Al Qaeda would not risk arousing suspicions of Homeland Security with the recapture of a saboteur.

Al Qaeda also had several Northern European operatives living quietly in Germany who had converted to Wahhabism, the more fundamental.  There was no evidence they had been detected to this date.  These Northern European agents did not fit the profile, and could easily enter the United States directly and had been saved for a high priority mission.

The Economist had also proposed a series of decoy missions to confuse the FBI.  His plan included a series of infiltration attempts with the sole purpose of being apprehended.  Low value volunteers would be assigned high risk infiltration routes, carrying false and misleading plans for various missions. These plans would suggest attacks on shopping malls, sports stadiums, and schools in an attempt to distract and overburden law enforcement, while the actual mission was being carried out.  To ensure capture, the agents would be given away by electronic communication to dummy Safe Houses.

American prison time was not considered to be difficult, and if weapons of mass destruction were not involved, it was thought that a plea bargain would only bring a prison sentence of 10 to 15 years.  Al Qaeda also promised their agents would one day be ransomed to save Americans held hostage by al Qaeda.

The actual infiltration of agents would occur over a period of two years.  The Economist proposed sending agents into Venezuela and other Latin American/Caribbean nations, initially as crew members on yachts owned by some of the faithful who were friendly to al Qaeda.  The agents would go ashore for liberty, and then switch identities with al Qaeda members already in those countries. 

They would then make their way into the United States by overland routes as part of the great migration north.  Coyotes working for al Qaeda through third parties would then smuggle them into the United States.  These human traffickers known as “Coyotes” were very well paid, and would ensure that the al Qaeda saboteurs would make it to safe houses in the Southwestern United States.  From the Safe Houses they would gradually be transported to America by car to their final destinations.   

The Safe Houses belonged to al Qaeda members who were professionals and professors, inn keepers and businessmen.  Their only job was to remain upstanding members of the community, doing nothing to arouse suspicion.  They were to pay taxes and donate to charity, but most of all remain out of trouble. The time would come when they would be available to fulfill their mission in providing safe harbor to al Qaeda agents.

Al Qaeda had provided enough money through the mail that these Safe Houses could be set up in congested cities, or on farms away from other homes.  The idea was to avoid arousing suspicion when one or two agents moved into a Safe House.  It was impractical to keep the agents locked away behind four walls; they needed exercise and entertainment before their mission.  The one inviolable rule was never to drive a car; this would generate the greatest risk of exposure due to accident or a moving infraction.

Step 3 consisted of target surveillance and mapping.  Al Qaeda had funded a large civil engineering firm which on the surface did legitimate work designing roads and bridges, schools and government buildings.  The owner was an actual engineer, but his al Qaeda supplements allowed him to underbid other contractors on occasion, and he was able to obtain many contracts for his company.  This work allowed the owner/agent to gather a large database on American infrastructure.

The most important information this company obtained was infrastructure mapping and specifications for many public services such as water and sewer systems, telecommunications exchanges and now most importantly, electrical grid maps.  All of this information was obtained without arousing suspicions, and then placed on CD ROM and hidden inside stuffed toys that were mailed to Latin America.  From Latin America the packages were transported to safe houses in Pakistan.

Al Qaeda was also using commercially available satellite images to find the most important substations, and create a target list.  Although the Americans had blacked out some of their most sensitive infrastructure sites, some foreign satellite surveillance companies still provided accurate aerial photo mapping of the United States for the right price.

Once the assembled information was in the hands of al Qaeda engineers, the critical elements of the grid could be assessed for attack.  They had pieced together a photographic and schematic map of most of the grid, and could now find the actual location of the electrical substations that handled large electrical loads on the system.  For instance; the step down substation on Temple Avenue in Salt Lake City, or the substation on Ohio Avenue in Indianapolis, or the open air transformers on Highway 25 in southeast Missouri, and the large step up transformers along the Ohio River and Highway 7 in eastern Ohio, all were easily within range of the “50 cal”. 

Using maps purchased on-line for 387 dollars that located all coal fired and nuclear electrical generating plants, they had assembled a target list of approximately 500 substations and generating plants.  G3 had then mailed this list by encoded CD to their surveillance agents in the United States.  Within eight weeks packages began to arrive in Pakistan with encoded pictures of the targeted substations. 

The substation in Salt Lake City, Utah was housed in a brick building near the Salt Palace.  The substation in Missouri was an open air system and isolated along a rural highway.  360 degree area photos were available for each target, allowing the G2 for intelligence to determine which sites could be attacked with the least risk of capture.

The surveillance agents were sent back to the enclosed sites with thermal imaging devices to take nocturnal infrared photos of the enclosed substations to determine heat signatures for the transformers.  They also took infrared photos of the open air substations in an attempt to determine the various heat signatures of all the equipment in an electrical substation. 

From these photos they were then able to determine the correct positions of all of the transformers in even the enclosed substations.  Comparing the infrared photos to the panoramic layout, they could then determine the best firing position for a saboteur without ever entering an enclosed substation. 

Within a year al Qaeda had finalized a target map with which to begin the training of their agents.  Building a mockup of the Temple Avenue facility in Pakistan, they were able to show saboteurs how to fire through walls by using night vision devices and maps of the facilities.

Step 4 involved the G4, commonly known as logistics.  The G4 immediately began to create a plan to obtain weapons in the United States.  It was quickly determined that obtaining one weapon would not arouse suspicion, but purchasing a second weapon could create investigation.  The G4 was surprised to learn that the secondary market for legal weapons was completely unregulated.

So long as the weapon was purchased in person, no paperwork was involved.  If the weapon was purchased by mail, it had to be forwarded to a licensed firearms dealer.  Al Qaeda would avoid this risk of discovery.

It had been hoped that most of the 50 caliber weapons could be acquired in the secondary resale market through straw sales using Americans allied with al Qaeda.  On the secondary market these operatives with American surnames could purchase multiple weapons from private sales around the nation.  It was important that no one individual operative purchase more than one weapon from a single seller.  The Internet advertised many such weapons for sale.

Other al Qaeda operatives were to use Spanish surnames during their purchase activities and pay with cash, commonly used in the American weapon resale business.  They were also to make sure these were not stolen weapons, they were to pay top dollar to obtain legal weapons. The goal was to avoid the appearance of individuals who fit a Middle Eastern profile collecting weapons.

And so it went, after two years and thousands of miles of travel, more than six dozen fifty caliber weapons had been acquired.  Most of the rifles were semi-automatic, with a few bolt action models.  All the rifles could accommodate a 10 round magazine with 6 magazines per rifle. 

The ball type ammunition was easily obtained on the open market, at 350 dollars for a case of 80 rounds.  This ammo had a sustained velocity of 1500 feet per second at 1000 yards, arriving at the target in 1.48 seconds and carrying over 3300 foot pounds of energy.

To improve long range accuracy, a targeting computer had been obtained for each weapon.  This device computed range and wind factors, allowing the shooter to hit the target on even the worst of nights.  Fortunately all of the targets were well illuminated, so night vision scopes would not be necessary until the lights went out.

  G2 had been in charge of finding the right men for the job.  After reviewing the records of thousands of faithful volunteers, 100 men were selected for the mission.  Most were from North Africa and had spent many years in Spain, giving them excellent Spanish language skills.  These volunteers were perfect for the Latin American infiltration routes and would be used to guide in the others. 

Two Germans had also volunteered and were highly trusted.  To prevent infiltration, every volunteer was always assigned a suicide mission to prove their fidelity to al Qaeda.  The Europeans were too valuable to use as martyrs, they usually carried out their faith proving missions with phony bombs and sham targets in Pakistan.  This ultimate test of faith quickly weeded out the faint hearted and enemy intelligence agents.  Those unwilling to carry out their assignments were executed on the spot, having learned too much information about al Qaeda training camps. 

A few low performers were given actual missions to keep everyone honest.  Some adherents of the faith blew themselves up, just insuring the integrity of al Qaeda security. The volunteers never knew if they had the genuine explosive vest or a simulator.     

After passing the test of faith, the recruits underwent vigorous physical and classroom training for the mission.  None were fully informed of their mission’s details, knowing only enough information to carry out their tasks.

Critical mission details were weapons training, cultural familiarization, and language training in both Spanish and English.  Map reading and memorization would be critical to a successful strike. 

They were also given instruction in the technical aspects of various targets, every thing from locomotives and nuclear power plants to the transformers.  The saboteurs became very familiar with the schematics of all types of transformers; it would be very important to place rounds in the core of the transformers.  The snipers studied many types of targets to keep them from guessing their ultimate mission.  They would not need to know their actual targets until they had arrived safely at the safe houses.

The most intense training involved sniper operations and marksmanship.  Everything would be for naught if the saboteurs could not hit the targets.  Chechen soldiers who had served in the Red Army before rebelling against Russia were the primary instructors.  Stealthy movement and concealment would also be extremely important to the operation.

The photos of the targets were scoured looking for vehicle concealment sites, and unrestricted sight lines to the transformers.  With the range of the 50 cal, the planners had a 2 kilometer radius to establish shooting locations for the snipers. 

Many of the power stations were located in river valleys due to the necessity to transport coal by barges to fire the boilers at the generators.  Almost all of these power stations were surrounded by hills giving the snipers clear shots on the transformers.  Many other power plants were located in deserts or on the plains.  Isolated in flat rural areas, the transformers were easily visible at long ranges, perfect sniper territory.

The snipers were taught how to travel to their targets and conceal their vehicles on isolated roads or driveways within a short distance of the shooters lair.  The scouts had plotted all of the concealment sites by global positioning satellites [GPS] coordinates.  The GPS system was another gift provided by the Americans for this attack, it made target marking much easier than simply marking maps.  The shooters would know exactly where to go when scouting their targets.

As they would be shooting at night, there was not a great need for sniper camouflage, just dark clothing appropriate for the weather.  They would prep the shooting site before the actual attack.  The snipers would clear just a small amount of brush to gain a good line of sight to the target if necessary, but not enough to arouse suspicion.

Vehicles chosen for the attack would be 4 wheel drive SUVs in case of snow, all used and of common appearance such as Chevy and Ford.  Common types and colors of cars would arouse little suspicion on American back roads.  No BMWs for these agents.

Multiple vehicle exchanges were also planned for the night of the mission.  The saboteurs would store a vehicle on an unused parking lot such as a church and then exchange vehicles after the targets were attacked.  It was hoped that each saboteur would have a better chance of escape if they changed vehicles on the night of the attack.

Every vehicle would be prepped days before the attack.  Every single light bulb would be brand new, every license plate would be legal, and all of the batteries and tires would be in very good condition.  Al Qaeda would not be foiled like Timothy McVeigh who had been caught after the Oklahoma City bombing because he did not have a license plate on his getaway car.

The snipers would be schooled in American traffic law and would have to pass tests about driving laws to avoid traffic violation stops.  They would be expected to strictly adhere to the speed limits and driving customs in America.  The goal was to avoid detection and attack as many power stations and substations as possible within their area of operations on D-night.

No receipts or evidence of any kind would be left behind in the vehicles.  Ownership of the vehicles would be tracked back to a hollow corporation created solely for this attack.  The vehicles would be registered to the First Pass driving school, which would provide cover for the safe houses.  There would be no financial link between the safe houses and the driving school. Vacant properties such as old gas stations were rented by the First Pass driving school to store and prep the vehicles for the attack.  Vehicle activity at such locations would not arouse suspicion among the authorities.

Every effort was being made to shield the Safe Houses from detection, but as a precaution, the Safe House managers were sent on vacations to various destinations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.  They would leave the morning of the attack. 

Their homes would be monitored by computer controlled cameras that would record any police investigations of the houses.  The Safe Houses would have small generators to run the cameras after the electricity went off.  A safe house occupant would be able to check on his home and surrounding area for stake outs or investigation from the safety of his hotel in Pakistan, Venezuela or Indonesia.  If they avoided detection it was hoped that when the lights came back on in America, the Moles living in the Safe Houses could return and provide bases for future attacks if needed.

The saboteurs would also use the months leading up to the attack to familiarize themselves with the routes to and from the targets, plus alternate routes if the authorities began to protect the power stations before daylight.  They were expected to memorize these routes and not use maps or GPS devices to find their targets.  The snipers would be driven back and forth to their targets, in daylight and in darkness to ensure they would be able to find their targets.

Weapons training included intense marksmanship sessions with the 50 cal, taking into account all types of weather and wind conditions.  The sniper’s target on average would be much larger than a human silhouette giving them a great advantage to strike the target at 1000 yards or more.  But even large targets would require above average marksmanship skill.  This was the first test that the potential saboteur would have to pass. 

The saboteurs were also given extensive instruction in the care and maintenance of the weapon. They would have to be able to dismantle and make minor repairs on their weapon such as clearing jams and changing springs and barrels.

And so it went as the scouting, personnel selection, training, and planning continued for four years in the operation now code named “Lights Out.”  By late 2007 it was time to implement or abandon the operation.  The saboteurs would have to be in place at least two months before D-night to meet the timetable, although the exact date for the attack had not been established.



                             Part IV    Final Planning Conference

 

On December 29, 2007 the Economist was summoned to Islamabad to present a progress report to the al Qaeda leadership.  A step by step detailed analysis was intensely reviewed to insure the plan was bullet proof.   

The Economist had reported the Safe Houses had all passed their integrity tests and were deemed capable of sheltering 2 to 3 saboteurs, which would allow about 6 dozen snipers to attack the grid.  The money was in place to support the operation through a couple of dummy corporations that would allow the withdrawal of funds as needed.  The money had been deposited slowly over the past two years, never more than 10,000 dollars per deposit.  The banks had to report any deposit greater than 10,000 dollars, which would have triggered an investigation.  The taxes were always paid on any interest income generated by the accounts, again to avoid creating any suspicion.

The targets had all been scouted, selected, and mapped for attack.  Several sniper lairs for each target had been picked for future preparation.  Each individual sniper would have the final decision to determine his firing points, but an outline was in place for every target.  The weapons had been purchased and were in storage.  Ammunition had been procured and sorted.

A few decoy agents would travel on various airlines a few weeks before the attack and intentionally create enough suspicion without breaking the law.  Each believed they were testing American airline security to carry out another attack using hijacked airlines.

The “First Pass” driving school was operating and the vehicles had been obtained which would be used the night of the attack.  This driving school had been established by an American who had no idea he was working for an al Qaeda operative in Pakistan.  He believed he was working for a rich Pakistani entrepreneur who wanted to invest in America.

The selection and training of the teams had been completed.  Only two White Europeans made the cut, the other successful trainees were from Spanish Morocco, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.  All had passed a faith finding test; there was no doubt about their loyalty.

The infiltration routes and transportation had been arranged.  The majority of the saboteurs would arrive in the Americas on various yachts and ships of trade and then exchange identities with brothers of similar appearance who would return to their home ports.  Once safely in the Americas with passports and ID cards of Latin American residents, they would then simply masquerade as tourists going to the Palenque ruins in Mexico. 

The operation was considered to be of such high value, that the saboteurs did not know their mission.  They were only expected to travel to their assigned Safe Houses before being briefed by mail of their intended targets.

The money was in the bank, each saboteur would have about 100,000 dollars to accomplish his mission.  This would allow them to eat well, purchase necessary clothing, and have money for escape.  Al Qaeda expected America to be on a cash only economy once the juice was off and the banking system stopped functioning.  They would have to stockpile gas along their escape routes to the coastlines of America to rendezvous with the various yachts and ships upon which they would escape. 

Most importantly, America was more economically vulnerable than ever.  America had gone deeper in debt, and by 2007 the national debt had surpassed nine trillion dollars.  The Economist was dumbfounded by American attempts to influence Middle Eastern events by borrowing money from oil rich nations, then giving the money to poor Middle East nations to keep them in the American sphere of influence.  He had described one such project during the leadership meeting.

He had read that the Americans were funding a global warming mitigation project through the UN.  The 3 billion dollar project was designed to create an inland sea in the uninhabitated Qattara Depression of northern Egypt.  A 50 kilometer [37 mile] tunnel had been proposed to carry 21 degree C [60 degree F] sea water from the Mediterranean Sea to the 10,000 Km square area [7000 square miles] that was as much as 150 meters [450 feet] below sea level.

The theory was to create a great lake in the Sahara Desert and allow 7,000 square miles of cool surface water to evaporate into the atmosphere and mitigate some of the effects of global warming.  The inland sea would also store 500 cubic kilometers of sea water, enough to reduce sea levels by about one centimeter.

The project would also be an economic boon for Egypt, giving the country an inland sea for commercial and sport fishing, and it would make water available for desalinization near Cairo. The evaporation of such cool water in a scorching desert would hopefully dissipate 10 billion kcal of atmospheric heat and perhaps create cooler temperatures and rain in the Sahara near the artificial sea. Such a project might literally allow the desert to bloom.

“This is how America controls our brothers,” the Economist had explained.  “They buy the loyalty of our brethren, who then aid the Americans in their war against our Freedom Fighters.  We must break their economic stranglehold on our neighbors.”

He had then given another example of how now was the right time to strike.  American entrepreneurs had created a home mortgage crisis which was crippling American credit.  The average home had lost more than ten percent of its value, and many Americans could no longer pay their mortgages. 

The American Federal Reserve Bank had been trying to artificially lower interest rates to save the housing and financial markets through much of 2007.  He had then noted that the lack of American capital and the risk of lower interest rates to American banks were obvious by the desperate loans some American Banks had acquired from oil rich Arab kingdoms.  Displaying a page from an American newspaper, it reported that in late 2007 a large American bank had borrowed many billions at an interest rate of eleven percent from Dubai to save their bank. 

How American banks could survive while borrowing money from foreign sources at 11 percent and lending it to American homeowners at 5 percent was more than the Economist could explain.  Yes, the American economy was at the tipping point.  Now was the time to strike, he had insisted.

“The Americans believe they can borrow their way to prosperity and security,” he had insisted to the leadership, “when what they are really doing is selling their children into slavery.  If this mission is successful and seriously damages the American economy, we will put their children on the auction block.”

Some al Qaeda leaders argued that assassination was a better use of the snipers and their equipment.  They believed their success in destabilizing the Pakistani government could be replicated in America. 

The Economist had beaten back this argument with an American history lesson describing numerous presidential assassinations.  “Even during the Civil War, the American political system had survived, he explained.  To create political instability in America, we must introduce suffering on a large scale to the American public,” he had insisted.

The vote in the Leadership council was 2 to 1 in favor of implementing Operation “Lights Out”.  Now the debate began about setting a date to strike. 

Some recommended the summer of 2008 to take advantage of the heat and absence of air conditioning.  Others wanted to strike the day before the presidential election.  The Economist had also given much consideration to this, and suggested a strike in the dead of winter.  His preferred time and date was 2330 on 1 January 2009. 

“The weather should be very cold across much of North America on this date, and cold over time creates terrible suffering with actual injury from freezing temperatures.  The heat of summer can be much more easily mitigated,” he had suggested. 

“The Americans will be in political transition at that time, with a weak sitting president and the newly elected president weeks away from inauguration.  Many government offices will have caretaker leaders, awaiting new presidential appointments.  This political uncertainty may slow the American response to the crisis and enhance the effects of our attack.”

“Finally,” he had emphasized, “there should be very few police available for patrol on the first night of the year. Many of the police will be off duty after the Americans party on New Years Eve which requires a large number of police.  It should take the American police many hours to respond in force. A delayed response should increase the odds that our agents can reach all of their targets and then escape.”

The council agreed that January first of Two Thousand and Nine would be the date of the attack.  The decoys would be given target dates around Thanksgiving that would hopefully make the Americans nervous over the holidays.



                                       Part V:  The Infiltration



The 72 men started to receive their assignments in early 2008 and operations began to create individual infiltration plans for all of the agents plus 10 backup agents.  G3 had made the decision to send in pathfinder agents in March of 2008 and not risk a mass infiltration.

The first three agents departed on the Panamanian registered freighter al Arubia departing Pakistan with a load of hemp bound for Venezuela.  The three week trip was uneventful and upon arrival in Caracas the crew left the ship with their passports for a well deserved liberty.  The three agents headed for a Safe House in a middle class suburb of Caracas.  At the house they gave their passports and ship IDs to the local control agent who had hired three replacement crew members of similar size, and appearance for the crew.  They were paid 75,000 dollars to embark on an around the world cruise of approximately one year.

The saboteurs immediately began the transit to North America disguised as tourists.  Passing by boat to Nicaragua and then by car into Mexico, the agents had no trouble with their supplied identities.  The next phase was the actual infiltration into the southern United States and their first Safe House in Tucson. 

Working with well paid human traffickers, they left Hermosillo, Mexico and were taken to the US border to await the crossing.  The coyotes had dug a 1 mile tunnel under the border which ended in a small home in Douglas, AZ.  From this small home they were taken by private car to Tucson and to the first Safe House where they would be documented by retinal scanner to ensure the Americans had not captured the authentic saboteurs and substituted a CIA imposter.  Once the saboteurs had been authenticated, they were then allowed to rest for a few days in Tucson.  They were then moved by a Buick, a car not usually a vehicle of choice for drug smugglers.  Each saboteur arrived at his final destination by private chauffeur on the West Coast, Midwest and East Coast from Tucson.

The attacks would be concentrated along the West Coast, the industrial Midwest, and Northeastern United States.  A few industrial regions in the Southeast would also be targeted.  These areas accounted for the great majority of the American industrial and business output, and attacks in those regions would most effectively degrade the American economy and morale.

It would take hundreds of saboteurs to destroy every large transformer and substation in the United States, but many of the power plants not targeted were of the small municipal variety and would not be able to power the entire grid.  There would be isolated areas of electrical generation left in the United States, but not enough to maintain the society.

In some ways it was thought that leaving small areas of the country with power would be even more disruptive to the American economy and society.  Once the full nature of the power outage became known to the public, and cold and hunger became well established, public disorder would increase as large numbers of people would attempt to migrate to the areas with power.

         This mass migration of Americans would make recovery efforts even more difficult.  Roads would be clogged, essential personnel would be unavailable, and the expected political weakness could be fully exploited.  The exiting administration might be unwilling to exert the necessary force to control the population and thus prevent chaos.

         As the year 2008 progressed, all 72 saboteurs and 6 substitutes successfully made it into the United States.  Most traveled through the Southern route, but a few across the vast Canadian frontier which is largely unguarded.  The 2 Europeans simply flew into the U.S. on 90 day tourist visas.

         Eighteen saboteurs were assigned to the West Coast, twenty to the industrial midsection and twenty two to the Northeast.  This left eight to attack Texas and Louisiana, and four to hit Atlanta, Miami, Tampa Bay and Charlotte, North Carolina which was now a major banking headquarters.

         By late October the players were all in place and beginning to prepare for their mission.  The weapons were bore-sighted; all the vehicles had been obtained and over the next few weeks fully prepped. 

Heavy clothing and two pairs of goggles were issued to each sniper to avoid eye injuries in the underbrush as they moved to and from the shooting position.  Extra gasoline was pre-positioned in self-storage bays along their mission routes.  They could not rely on gas stations after the attack began.

The self-storage bays would also be used to store the weapons once their missions were completed.  The saboteur would wrap the receiver in petrolatum cloth and this would hopefully protect the weapon for years to come.  It was hoped that the weapons could once again be used in later attacks if the Americans proved stubborn after this first attack against their economy.

The saboteurs had gone to a nocturnal work schedule in November so they would be fully acclimated to working in the dark and driving without drowsiness.  The saboteurs would only drive the night of the attack, by that time a drivers license would be a moot point.

As the date of the attack drew near, they began to read the breathless news reports describing the dramatic arrests of a ring of al Qaeda saboteurs who had planned several high profile attacks to disrupt the American Thanksgiving holidays.  Most of the saboteurs were unaware of the decoy plan, but were reassured by letter that all was well and to carry on with their own mission.

Day after day they traveled and reviewed their routes, finding shortcuts and alternate routes to get to their targets no matter the weather or roadblocks.  Each saboteur was assigned an average of five power plants and six major substations along their mission routes. 

January 1st would be one of the longest nights of the year, so starting the attack at 2300 hours Eastern Standard Time would still give each sniper about 8 hours of darkness to accomplish the mission.  By 0700 on 2 January the mission would be a success or failure, and then escape would be the primary thought on each sniper’s mind.

They would follow back roads as much as possible, attempting to avoid roadblocks on primary roads.  The East coast groups would rendezvous in Virginia Beach, Charleston, and Jacksonville.  The Midwest groups would go to Galveston and Lake Charles, LA.  Some in the North would attempt to slip back across the Canadian border.  The West Coast agents would go to Astoria, Oregon and San Francisco.  A few would try to escape back across the border into Mexico and head back to Venezuela.

Yachts would be waiting to pick-up the saboteurs in the coastal cities on the days of the 8th and 9th of January.  It was hoped that in all the confusion they could simply walk to the yachts and leave undiscovered for a small Caribbean island with a runway large enough to handle a private jet.  From there they would head back to Venezuela, using the cover of entrepreneurs looking to invest a few million dollars in the country, starting with the country’s customs inspectors. 

Although not officially aligned with al Qaeda, the leader of Venezuela hated the Gringos, and it was hoped that his government would look the other way as the saboteurs made their escape.  Al Qaeda agents working in Venezuela had been bribing and cultivating unofficial contacts with a few Venezuelan government officials for the previous three years.  After the attack al Qaeda agents in South America would indirectly notify their government contacts that “special cargo” would be transiting through the country after carrying out a “special effects” movie in Norte Americana.  It was hoped the mutual hatred for the American Gringos and influence from the bribes would allow the “special cargo” to travel in and out of the South American country as they made good their escape.





                                                 Part VI:  Lights Out

         And now, New Years Eve 2008, the chief saboteur had concluded his mental review of the preparations and was ready to bring these plans to fruition.  Sitting at his computer in middle America, he prepared the single electronic message to be used in this attack.  The Chief Saboteur was a student of history, and had chosen a code phrase last used in 1941, when the Japanese successfully attacked Pearl Harbor.  With that irony, three words were launched into cyberspace.  “Tora, Tora, Tora” left his fingertips at the speed of light to bring darkness to America.

As Americans struggled from their recliners at half time of the 2009 Rose Bowl, al Qaeda saboteurs in New York, Boston, Philadelphia Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Dallas, Houston, Denver, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle began to arise for their night’s work.  Two dozen other snipers were beginning their work night in smaller cities scattered around the United States.  All locations had been chosen because of their proximity to major electrical power plants and substations.

The alternate getaway cars had been stashed around the country the day before, gassed up and ready to roll.  The weapons were cleaned, bore sighted and in their cases, ready to fire.  The gun cases were hidden in lawn trimmer boxes, so as not to be a dead give away if seen in the car.  Each sniper would have eight hundred rounds of ball ammunition.

Before dinner the snipers bathed their feet and then kneeled while facing Eastward in cities all across America.  Praying for a successful mission and blessings for their families, they made peace with their maker and set off to bring poverty to America.

The East Coast snipers would strike just before midnight and a few minutes later the West Coast snipers would begin their work.  Four hundred power plants and substations had been targeted, it was hoped that more than 1000 large transformers would be destroyed before daybreak.

Sniper P-3 left his Safe House in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and headed for the Ohio River Valley.  His first target was the Beaver Valley Generating plants and the Shippingport Nuclear facility in Western PA across the river from East Liverpool, Ohio.  The nuclear plant generated over 1600 megawatts of electricity.

Traveling along route 168, he turned north and parked the car about 500 yards from his shooting lair.  The SUV was parked just inside an abandoned home’s driveway; the vehicle was not visible from the road.  This hilltop road was not heavily traveled and if a car was near, he would simply toss the weapon into the ditch and continue walking until the car had passed.

Reaching the lair, P-3 crawled onto the ledge overlooking the Ohio Valley Nuclear Power station.  He was about one thousand yards from the plant, but it would be an easy shot for his A1G2, the Army’s designation for his weapon.  The transformers were brightly lit, an easy target on this cool night.

Down below, the entrance to the plant was secured with large concrete barriers disguised as planters, arranged to slow down a suicide bomber.  Guards and sensors constantly scanned the station for intruders, and multiple fences surrounded the plant. 

It was now 2330, time to chamber the first round.  Sighting the first of eight transformers, P-3 calmly squeezed off the first round.  The silencer muffled, but did not extinguish the bark of the first round fired on America’s electrical grid.  There was no visible damage to the transformer as P-3 placed four more rounds into the target.  Reloading with 10 shot magazines, he placed a total of 48 rounds into the nuclear plant’s transformers.

He did not wait to see the results of his work, by the time the transformers caught fire and the alarms were sounded he was on his way to his second target.  P-3 crossed the Ohio River at East Liverpool and began his trip down route 7 to the W.H. Sammis Plant.

Passing through Stratton, he drove up a hill on the west side of town.  After stashing the car in an abandoned barnyard, he walked along four wheeler tracks under power lines carrying juice from the electric plant.  The power lines led him directly to the spot overlooking the transformer field. This was a large coal fired plant, producing more than 1000 megawatts of power for the industrial Midwest.

There did not appear to be any unusual activity as he sighted in the transmission transformers.  Pollution controls were being installed creating more noise in the power plant.  The yard was again well lit, and as P-3 sighted in the transformers, a light snow began to fall.

It only took five minutes to put 68 rounds into the transformers.  Once again there was no response from the generating plant as he packed up the weapon.  There was just too much noise in the area for the workers to notice the impact of the rounds on the transformers.  The oil coolant reduced the kinetic energy of the bullet as it passed through the transformer and the round was spent as it exited the transformer. 

Driving a few miles south to Toronto, he stopped to fire 50 rounds into old transformers at a decommissioned power plant.  Since it was so close to the Sammis plant and could be used in an emergency to produce power, this plant was also attacked.  Within two hours P-3 had disabled over 3000 megawatts of transmitted electricity capacity.

By 0100 of January second, 142 power plants had been attacked. The keepers of the grid knew an attack was taking place, and reports of many power plant transformer fires were being received from around the nation.  Ninety minutes into the attack Homeland security and police agencies began to receive calls for assistance.  The causes of the fires were still unknown at 0115, but some believed an internet attack on the grid must be the source of the fires.  Although, power surges had not registered on the grid computers, it was assumed that fluctuations in the grid voltage must be the cause of so many transformer outages.

This incorrect assumption and the slow inspection of the crime scenes due to the fires and danger of explosions limited the visual inspection of the electrical transformers; this gave the saboteurs another ninety minutes to reach other targets.

As the saboteurs traveled in somewhat of a zigzag pattern to target the substations along their way, the countryside suddenly darkened, and the stars glowed much brighter.  With satisfaction they realized the grid was going down.  Most of the substations were darkened by 0300, but with their night scopes they could easily pick out the still warm substation transformers. 

Firing a few rounds into each of these smaller transformers, they were creating more work and expense for the electrical companies to repair.  By 0400, two hundred substations had been put out of action. 

By 0400 every police agency in the country was looking for the saboteurs, or attempting to guard the power plants.  Guarding the power plants with a few police officers was an impossible task.  The range of the “50 cal” created a 10 mile perimeter, and such a distance would require a battalion of Marines to secure.  The local police, not trained in securing such important structures did not have a chance. 

In Panic, many people were now out on the roads, and the saboteurs just blended in with the other vehicles as they drove from one target to another.  By 0500 Homeland Security had developed a theory of the attack, and realized they were looking for needles in a hay stack in trying to find the saboteurs among the millions of cars on the road. 

  By 0515, for the first time in 60 years the national emergency broadcast alert system was used to broadcast an actual emergency to the nation.  Warning Americans that the country was under attack, all non-essential vehicles were ordered off the road.  Unfortunately for the Homeland Security, it would take at least two hours for most drivers to get the message and get off the road.  The extra hours of confusion and some hysteria allowed Al Qaeda more time to complete their mission. 

By 0600 EST, the saboteurs were making the last of their attacks on isolated substations as they began to think of escape.  They would now go to ground, just simply disappearing into pre-selected hotels with generators and stay quiet.

The plan called for the saboteurs to lay low for up to one week, and then begin to make their way toward the coastlines and borders of America for their rendezvous.  Within ten days, desperate Americans searching for food and fuel would begin to ignore the martial law orders to stay off the roads.  Within one week the planners also expected to see the first of a mass migration of cold Americans moving south in search of warmth. 

When the first wave of freezing Northern refugees began to make their way south, the saboteurs also began to head toward the coastlines, hoping to avoid the dragnet of police searching for them.  By the end of the first week, most police agencies were so busy just maintaining some semblance of public order, that any real effort to find them had been abandoned. Many police officers could not get to work or had abandoned work to provide for their families, similar to what had occurred in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

All of the saboteurs made it to their escape points using gasoline they had stashed in self-storage lockers along their escape routes.  They also hid their weapons in these lockers as they fled. 

Al Qaeda subsidiaries owned the self storage units, and they would monitor these lockers for signs of FBI investigation.  If they remained undetected, it was possible future saboteurs could once again retrieve and use the trusted “50 cal” for future operations.

M2 had traveled along Interstate 55 to the Mississippi coast line near Biloxi after completing his mission to rendezvous with a shrimp boat.  A shrimp boat captain had long ago been compromised with bribes to move small amounts of contraband such as cigarettes for al Qaeda agents.  Once al Qaeda had the captain in their pocket, they simply kept him on the payroll with the promise of a big payday in the future, and the threat of discovery or worse if he did not keep his mouth shut. 

Al Qaeda had long operated outside the rule of law, and had quickly learned all of organized crime’s tricks to accomplish a task.  Finding corrupt Americans who would sell out their honor for a small amount of money had not been a problem.  The drug wars had created large numbers of individuals willing to sell their souls along the Gulf coast, finding several fishing boat captains had been relatively easy.  The small shrimp boat was waiting when M2 and two other saboteurs arrived, taking them to an abandoned oil platform where a larger vessel would move them to South America.  In the midst of the confusion, no one was searching working ships attempting to bring food back to the state.

Most of the cold refugees were having trouble finding enough gasoline for their SUVs as they moved south.  Without electricity the gas could not be pumped through the large pipelines that moved most of the gasoline from the Gulf coast to the Midwest and Northeastern United States.  As people hoarded what gas was available or used it as fuel to power portable generators, gasoline quickly became scarce.

Within a week the country was dissolving into chaos, as citizens were becoming more desperate without the usual comforts of electricity.  For the saboteurs it was a different story, they were now onboard their get-away vessels starting the slow trip home, daydreaming of the glorious rewards they would receive in the future Caliphate.



Part VII  The Aftermath



It did not take long for the extent of the damage to dawn on the American government on the 2nd of January 2009.  Thanks to the original American Telephone and Telegraph Corporation, the phone system was still functioning.  Just like 911, the attacks had stopped as soon as they had begun, and no further reports of damage to the electrical grid was reported after dawn on 2 January.

Most utilities were reporting significant electrical outages along the East and West coasts and the Midwest.  The electrical outages reported in the South were not as uniform. 

The saboteurs had attacked the oil producing areas of Louisiana and Texas, but some parts of the Carolinas and Georgia had a few local grids functioning.  These areas with electricity acted as magnets, drawing millions of hungry and cold refugees to areas that would not have the resources to care for them.

By the second week of darkness the seriousness of the situation was becoming apparent to all Americans.  Over 200 million Americans were still without power, and the utility companies were unable to provide a date when the electrical grid could be fully restored. 

The utilities were looking the world over for transformers, but only about 10 percent of the destroyed transformers could be replaced within the first two weeks with the transformers in stock.  This would not create enough transmission capacity to power the grid.  Some electrical experts were claiming it might be 6 months before significant capacity could be restored.

The emergency broadcasting system was urging people to remain calm, but within ten days of the outage large numbers of people were beginning to panic.  The January cold snap only reinforced the hysteria.

Temperatures in the Great Lakes region were hovering around 0 degrees for nightly lows, with highs in the teens.  Without heat, people were starting to suffer from chronic hypothermia.  The shivering masses were losing weight and desperately looking for ways to warm their homes.

Americans were found standing outside the south facing sides of their homes on sunny days, attempting to warm themselves with reflected sunlight.  Central Park in New York City looked liked a pasture within two weeks of the attack, as thousands of people had cut down century old trees in the park to use as firewood in apartments around the city.

Wealthy New Yorkers, who had believed the early reports that electricity would flow again in a few days and had remained in their high rise apartments, were beginning to suffer the effects of hypothermia. They were also starting to feel hunger, as they never dreamed famine could touch New York City.

The grocery store’s shelves were empty by the second week as panic buying and hoarding overwhelmed the distribution system.  As fuel became scarce, trucks could not bring food to the cities.  What little food transported to the city by the Army, was quickly stolen if not guarded by the military.  The Army brought ten million rations, commonly known as Meals Ready to Eat to New York City.  The ten million rations were consumed in two days. 

Now wealthy New Yorkers began to scavenge for food, and offered thousands of dollars for a few pieces of wood to heat their cold apartments.  Many New Yorkers died of carbon monoxide asphyxiation from patio fireplaces brought inside their homes in an attempt to heat their apartments.  Other indoor fires spread out of control, setting fire to large apartment buildings in the city. 

The fire department was helpless without electricity.  Without power the city’s water system was unable to charge the hydrants for the fire hoses.  The pumper trucks could not hoist water above a few stories, and there were insufficient numbers of pumper trucks to attack all of the fires breaking out in the city. By the end of January 40 large apartment buildings had been consumed, and over 10,000 New Yorkers were homeless.

In quiet, rural areas the sound of generators attracted freezing neighbors who forced themselves into their neighbor’s homes at gunpoint.  Some individuals who attempted to defend their warm domiciles were overwhelmed and lost their lives to the cold hordes surrounding the house with lights.

Early on there had been some demonstrations demanding help for the city, but the entire Northeast was enduring the same blackout.  The demonstrator’s demands simply echoed along the cold streets, there would be no quick relief.  By mid February another cold snap hit the Northeast, but this time the citizens were too weak to demonstrate, they could only suffer.

Utility companies continued working non-stop to find transformers and get them installed.  Unfortunately very few large transformers had been in stock due to huge demand for electrification in the developing world.  The shortage of transformers left the power plants waiting on production of new equipment.

  The destruction of the grid had also crippled the ability of Tesla and other manufactures to produce transformers.  Al Qaida had made sure that all power plants within a 300 mile radius of transformer manufacturers had been disabled.  This had completely shut down the transformer plants, as FEMA struggled to get truck mounted generators to the factories and restore electricity to the plants.

Unfortunately the available stock of materials from suppliers was also limited due to fuel shortages, crowded roads, and their own electrical outage.  Their workers were also suffering the effects of food shortages and worry about suffering family members.  Workers who were located in the North were also feeling the effects of hypothermia, which resulted in weight loss and decreased stamina from shivering, as they attempted to keep the plants going 24/7.

The attack’s effect was a slow start to replenish the huge demand for new transformers to recharge the grid.  It took one month to get the transformer factories operating to 100% capacity.

In the meantime chaos reigned within the borders of the United States.  Hospitals were under siege by thousands of sick Americans, as lack of food and sanitation led to widespread disease.  Within two weeks, most hospitals had exhausted their fuel supplies to operate their own generators.  Overwhelmed by ill patients, many staff members simply walked away for their own safety, and to care for their own families.

The saddest events took place in nursing homes.  Most homes did not have large back-up generators, and the facilities quickly became frigid in the north, and uncomfortably cool in the south.  Residents with families received some care early on, and others were moved to family homes; but those without nearby family began to suffer in the first few days.

As the staff drifted away, weak voices could be heard echoing in the cold hallways; “nurse, nurse, nurse, --- nurse, nurse, nurse, --- nurse, nurse, nurse.  Like most wars, the sick and weak were the first to suffer and die in the aftermath of operation “Lights Out.” 

As the economist predicted, the financial ramifications soon began to take their toll on American business and government.  With most industries shut down, tax revenues plummeted and earnings became nearly non-existent.  The government tried to borrow money from the usual foreign sources, but most now demanded some form of collateral, which the government could not provide.  Currency reserves were empty after the housing crisis, the gold and silver reserves were only worth a few billion dollars, and the “good faith and credit of the United States” could no longer excite the skeptical.  Without further credit, OPEC refused to ship oil to the United States in exchange for dollars. 

Without dollars in circulation, the credit economy of the United States truly froze.  The exchange of currency had ceased; housing, auto, and casual credit payments were on hold as banks could not process the payments even if they were made.  Most accounts were quickly overdue as families were struggling to find food and stay warm.

Without electricity the digital economy could not function.  The digital money could not be exchanged for goods and services, forcing the Federal Reserve to print a trillion dollars of script in an attempt to get currency into circulation.  This injection of liquidity, coupled with scarcity of goods quickly fueled serious inflation. 

With dollar inflation destroying OPEC nation’s purchasing power, they refused to accept dollars for payment.  By March of 2009 a gallon of diesel cost ten Euros.                                         

As the spring of 2009 came, many farm tractors were sitting idle as fuel and fertilizer were not available for the planting season.  Much of the beef and pork herds had been slaughtered in 2008 due to the high price of feed, and now money was not available to pay for imported meat and fish.  The threat of famine became a real possibility in 2009.

Operation “Lights Out” had also been successful in creating a huge number of refugees, forcing the American Military to divert transport and material to care for the millions of new homeless.  This huge crisis in the homeland left American soldiers vulnerable to attack in Iraq and Afghanistan.  With decreased logistical transport, the bullets, beans and fuel used to support the American Army quickly dried up. 

Al Qaeda in Iraq now launched Operation “oil”.  Using suicide bombers to attack many of the gas and oil pipelines in Iraq, AIQ immobilized the Americans, as support from the United States was seriously curtailed.  Once mutual support of isolated units was interrupted, AIQ massed large numbers of fighters and overwhelmed and massacred isolated garrisons of American soldiers in night attacks.  The shortage of fuel had grounded many ground support aircraft which could usually drive off the attackers.

The new equation on the battlefield created many “Dien Bien Puhs” for the Americans, a situation which had forced the French to surrender Vietnam in 1954.  The American Army suffered a thousand casualties in February and March of 2009; and the political situation for the new President became so weakened, that the American military was left with no choice but to fight its way out of Iraq.

During this time of darkness, al Qaeda began to transmit surrender terms to the people of the United States.  Using short wave and the internet, al Qaeda only demanded that all Western military forces evacuate the eastern hemisphere.  If the West complied, al Qaeda would stop attacking Dar al-Harb, and leave the West to its own resources.

The newly elected American government was overwhelmed by a public that had never suffered.  Demand for compliance was widespread, as most of the public simply wanted their electricity restored and had no stomach for further engagement with al Qaida, and accepted the terms of surrender as reasonable.

By the end of the summer of 2009, all American military forces had returned to North America.  There was no longer enough money to maintain the vast network of military bases which had made America a world power.  By the end of 2009, the United States was considered a regional power, on par with Brazil.

Operation “Lights Out” had achieved its objectives.  The American economy was in shambles, over four million Americans had died, and forty million were refugees for much of 2009.  The political situation was in turmoil, as both parties were blamed for this failure to protect the homeland.  It would take many years for America to recover, and by that time the center of world power had moved eastward and backward.



Postscript:



         The goal of this story is not to publish a terrorist playbook, but to create a vehicle which stimulates discussion about major challenges facing the United States if successfully attacked by terrorists.  The nation must debate these issues now, and not respond with emotion and poor planning as the country did after 9/11.  The following list summarizes a few of these challenges and risks.



1.          The growing national debt encumbering the United States places the country at risk of economic blackmail.  Such a weak position will be exploited by terrorists.

2.          Widespread damage inflicted by terrorism will create political instability and demands of revenge if millions die and tens of millions suffer.  Such extreme emotions will be inflamed if television networks display millions of Jihadist sympathizers celebrating while Americans suffer.

3.          The United States must prepare politically, economically, psychologically and spiritually for such an attack.  The nation must decide now to prohibit the widespread use of special weapons and tactics, in acts of vengeance to salve our anger.  It is very likely Americans would later be ashamed of using all of its military might to inflict widespread suffering on perceived enemies.  These decisions must be made now, and not in the heat of anger.

4.          Legal loopholes allowing adversaries to obtain powerful weapons on the secondary resale market inside the United States are a risk and this loophole should be closed before such weapons can be used in a terrorist attack.

5.          Western civilization is currently paying for both sides of this war by importing oil with some of the oil profits siphoned by al Qaeda.  In an unregulated energy market, alternative energy supplies cannot compete with oil, which is the cheapest and most abundant source of energy on the planet in 2009.  The United States will not escape this war without choking off the flow of money to terrorists.

6.          Much of the Homeland Security funds have been treated as political largess, and wasted on ridiculous fears of chemical attacks and other nonsense in small towns.  These funds are often used to give Fire Chiefs $50,000 SUVs, while prime targets have been left undefended. For those upset about the publication of an attack on this vulnerable economic linchpin, the transformers are still tempting targets.  Now that they have been identified, a very small percentage of the Homeland Security budget can be used to shield and protect the transformers before they become smoldering trash.











John M. Dawson, D.O.

Bedrock Insights