Mercy! Mercy! That Dang Nabed PERCY!

Episode 4: Facts Bearing on the Problem

Assume that the following meeting takes place prior to the next New York Marathon. The special Agent In Charge has assembled the key leaders who will be working this high profile event.

“Gentleman, next month we will be responsible for counter terrorism operations at the marathon. The problem we face is to determine the best way to anticipate and prevent a terrorist attack. So, if you have any preliminary questions, now is a good time to ask.”

A hand is raised in the back of the room. “Yes, Agent Jones…”

“Exactly what kind of terrorist attack do you anticipate we’ll be facing?”

“Good question. I recall a terrorist incident when I was a boy when the President of the United States was shot by a sniper. Then there was a case where a home grown terrorist set off a trailer bomb in Oklahoma. Then in Moscow there was a group of terrorists who took some hostages at the opera and oh yeah, in Boston, several months ago, there were these two brothers who carried off an attack using pressure cookers.

Another hand raises. “Yes, Agent Smith.”

“Can you elaborate on these four instances… For example which is the most likely and which one would be the most damaging?”

“Well, I supposed if you rank ordered them, the most likely would be some sort of an anti-personnel explosive device delivered on foot, followed by a sniper attack, in one form or another, then a variation of the big bomb on wheels (maybe stationary) theme and last I would say is a group of militants taking hostages. With regard to part two of your question, which would do the most damage, we can define damage in terms of loss of life and limb or in terms of political or economic consequences. As a rule of thumb I’d say the anti-personnel bomb would have the least impact, followed by the sniper, then the big bomb scenario and worst case would be attack by armed militants and the execution of hostages on live TV." However if we allow any of these to take place the fallout will be huge and we will have failed in our prevention mission.

(Note: I am using these four threats for illustrative purposes.)

Now this sounds a bit trite and contrived but it demonstrates how facts bearing on the problem are identified and discussed. There are other facts such as the date, duration of the event and physical geography. Others would include the resources to be dedicated to the taskforce. A threat assessment in the form of a document would be another example. The point is that these relate to the conditions, resources, time, geography and manpower that will be available for accomplishing the mission.