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May my opinions gather wind under their wings and fly, perchance to soar. |
| Votes: 153 million. 52% Biden 46% Trump 02% other A voting margin of 10 million. Electoral College: Wrapped up: 240 Biden 100 Trump Almost wrapped up (only a surprise): 240 Biden 116 Trump Most probably: 251 Biden 131 Trump Notes: Alaska and Montana are both elastic and very hard to predict. Both states can be ornery. I think Alaska will tighten to +5 for Trump and Montana to +3 (compared to +20 in 2016). Arizona is also in this group as the West can be undervoted for Dems. I think Biden will strengthen to +5. The South however and Midwest tend to be 'polite', even these days; but that's wearing thin. I don't think that affect that Trafalgar polling depends upon will be the difference. That said, South Carolina should be very red but due to local issues I think it will tighten to +4%. At this point Biden has a 96% chance of winning. The true 'swing states' for 2020: I think Trump has scared Iowans and with that 'nice' factor (a.k.a white lies) in a very White state? Trump wins by +3%. Ohio will flip for Trump to +2%. I think recent events point to a resurgence. Texas could flip to Biden but I think it will be close, <2% Trump. I believe Biden will hold on to Maine-2 at about +2% and Nebraska-2 at 2% and North Carolina at +2%. 267 Biden 193 Trump I think this is where we may be at for Biden when Trump declares victory around midnight or 1 a.m. The problem states: A true tossup: Georgia. Now at +1% Biden. I think he'll hold on in a squeaker, possibly a recount. Wisconsin: may not know for days. When it's all counted I suspect a tightening but still +6% for Biden. Pennsylvania: red votes may be counted first and all voting will be contested as it already is. IF all votes are counted (expect lawsuits to suppress votes, same with Wisconsin and elsewhere) the final vote could be +2% for Biden as the race there is tightening due to W.PA. Florida: a real mess, as always. Seniors are abandoning Trump but White Cubans love him. I think this race will flip to Trump from -2% to +2%. If Florida is called... maybe, unless I called Nevada wrong! 267 Biden 222 Trump At that point violence may break out on Wednesday as Trump declares victory. If New York isn't posting results by then the margin is 238 to 222. If early results in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin show Trump ahead, expect 'victory'and 'violence' as Trump will be leading 247-246 (in his mind). If New York is factored in that's 252-267... close enough to declare Georgia in his favor 268-267. Of course I missed DC... which makes it 268-270 and a Biden victory but then expect fights in NE2, ME2, and NC. And yes, expect violence. My final tally if 1. all votes are counted and 2. the courts refuse Trump's trickery and 3. electors are faithful and no state is disputed in December when the results are made final and there's no opposition in the Senate in January when it becomes official: 316 Biden 222 Trump But still a 10 million vote margin as California and New York negate the razor-thin margins of Texas and Florida. All this said... if Florida does NOT flip it's 351-187 and over by Wednesday. A blue tsunami? Not likely but it might sweep up Texas, Ohio and Iowa as well and make the Senate blue 55-45 (52-48 is what I predict with 538 51-52; in the House 243-195; 538 predicts 238-200). A blue tsunami could be painful for Trumpsters and the GOP: 413-125. Although plausible... don't expect it. What do I expect? If it isn't settled by Thursday with Trump conceding... VIOLENCE. |
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