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 |    Not for the faint of art. |
| https://www.livescience.com/63843-look-harder-for-aliens.html I like Star Trek and Doctor Who as much as anybody, and more than most, but the more I learn, the less I think we'll find spacefaring aliens anytime soon. What it comes down to for me is only one factor in the Drake equation. If you don't know, the Drake equation isn't anything like a real mathematical equation. It doesn't describe anything in physics or astronomy or any other science. It is merely a starting point for thinking about the possibilities for extraterrestrial life. Let's take a look at it (from Wikipedia  ):The Drake equation is: N = R∗ ⋅ fp ⋅ ne ⋅ fl ⋅ fi ⋅ fc ⋅ L where: N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone); and R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations) fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space Before I go any further, I'm going to call "intelligent life" anyone who can build spaceships. Like us. So we can stow the inevitable jokes about not finding intelligent life on Earth for a bit. And we're not talking about dolphins or cats or other superior species; just the ones who build spaceships. My point of contention is fi. We have exactly one data point for this: us. And it took 4-5 billion years from Earth's formation for us to appear, and Earth came into being about 10 billion years after the universe began. That's a long damn time, especially compared to the 60 or so years that we've been building spaceships. And here's the thing that bugs me: some humans like to think of their species as the pinnacle of evolution, but the evidence for that is lacking. It's a matter of perspective, you see - certainly we've been successful from a species survival standpoint, but so have roaches. Intelligence - technological prowess - is obviously not a requirement for species success, and given the existence of nuclear weapons, I'd argue that it's no guarantee of it, either. The ecosystem would do just fine without us (some would argue it would do better, but that's not my point right now). Nor is there anything that mandates the evolution of technological ability. Life went on long before that particular trait came into being. So we don't know. It could happen a lot. Maybe it only happens rarely. With only one data point, we have no way of knowing. Perhaps it's a little like winning the lottery - you only have a one in (some astronomical number) chance of winning it, but once you've won it, your chance of having won it is unity. And we're looking at the cosmic lottery from the perspective of having won it. Therefore, it hardly matters what the other terms are, if the chance of intelligent life developing is only one in 10100. That's as close to zero as doesn't matter, even in a universe as inconceivably large as ours. And the Drake equation is focused on our galaxy alone. Even if every other fraction in the equation is effectively 1, and even if there's a trillion stars in the galaxy (estimates tend to be lower than this), if that one factor is 1 in 10100, we could easily justify the number of technological civilizations in our galaxy to be 1. Do I think there's other "intelligent" life out there, somewhere? Yes. I've said so before. Big universe and all that. But if it's not in our galaxy - nay, even if it is in our galaxy and, say, on the other side of the core - it might as well not exist for all that we'll ever be able to contact it or vice-versa. Absent, of course, revisions to the known laws of physics. To be clear, even finding a goddamn microbe of non-terrestrial origin would be of earth-shattering importance (hopefully not literally). I think it likely that this will happen, given how short a time it was from the formation of Earth to the first stirrings of life thereon. But it hasn't happened yet, so we are still in the realm of speculation. I hope I'm wrong. I really do. And I think it's important to keep looking, if only for the other things we can learn from the search. But maybe we also need to work on becoming the superior beings we wish we could believe in. |
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