Nuclear Miscalculation

Nuclear Miscalculation

by Damon Nomad

         Russian President Voronin can barely contain his anger as he sat in the Central Security Briefing Room; a counterpart to the US White House Situation Room. He stared at banks of large video monitors and computer screens. A middle-aged military intelligence officer described the large-scale deployment of NATO forces in eastern Poland and northern Ukraine, near the borders of Belarus.
         Voronin slammed a fist on the table. "This is an offensive deployment to support a future attack." His cheeks reddened with emotion. "A gateway to Russia through Belarus."
         The supreme commander of Russian forces slowly shook his head. "No comrade President, this is not an offensive configuration. It is an aggressive defensive posture, with advanced air defense and the new generation patriot anti-missile batteries." He waved a hand at the monitors. "There are no battle tanks or fast armored vehicles. They are focused on electronic eavesdropping, drones for surveillance, and counter-strike capability."
          The commander knew why the Americans pushed for this deployment. The crazy rants of Belarus president Alex Romochenko. Including claims that Russia was going to give Belarus tactical nuclear weapons. Something he hoped would never happen. He would never authorize it.
         Voronin nodded to the head of GRU to follow him from the room. Voronin marched out of the room with the GRU general walking beside him. "Get my first deputy chief of staff and meet me in my private study in twenty minutes." He needed his two most trusted advisors.
         The three men gathered in a seating area of the cozy and elegant room. Voronin was calm and direct. He gestured at his chief of staff. "Invite Romochenko to Moscow. A two-day formal state visit. Come up with an extravagant public agenda that will make the idiot look important." He nodded at the GRU general. "We will have a private meeting with him late on the last day. Just you and me along with his defense minister. They both speak decent Russian. I want drones, fighters, and bombers permanently housed on their largest air bases."
         The GRU general exhaled loudly. "You know the two things he wants. One of our surveillance intelligence feeds." The general paused for a moment. "We can come up with a limited package; something that will make him happy, but not compromise us."
          The general shook his head. "But, two mobile nuclear Iskander missile launchers. We cannot give those to that lunatic. It was stupid to train them how to use them."
         Voronin's lips twisted into a sinister grin. "I have something not quite as dangerous that we can control. We will convince him they are just as good."
                   ***
         Two weeks later, Voronin and the GRU general met with Romochenko and his defense minister in a magnificent salon room in the presidential palace in Moscow. They drank Vodka as the Belarus leaders listened to the proposed deal. Romochenko pouted like an insolent child. "I want the Iskander." He waved a fist at the GRU general. "Not these old artillery pieces."
          Voronin answered in an angry tone, "The Tyulpan 2S4 is an honored piece of Russian hardware. You should be grateful to have ten of those nuclear-capable artillery pieces with forty nuclear-tipped shells. They have a range of fifty kilometers with those five-kiloton weapons." He focused his stare on Romochenko. "We promised the Americans that we decommissioned all of the nuclear shells. You keep them in their storage housings and hidden unless we agree with you deploying them. You understand me."
         Romochenko nodded his agreement and gestured at his defense minister. "We understand you comrade President." A security officer escorted the two Belarus 'VIPs' out of the room.
         Voronin poured himself another glass of vodka and took a sip. "We can remotely override the arming circuits for the nuclear shells. You're sure of that general."
         "Quite sure, comrade president."
                   ***
         A month later, Romochenko met with the head of Belarus's strategic forces.
         "What progress have you made General Gromokov?"
         "As you know, we discovered that the Russians can remotely override the nuclear-arming activation system of the artillery cannons. Our people have been successful in installing a bypass circuit in one of the artillery units. We have tested it several times in an offline mode. It works perfectly and we are converting the other nine artillery pieces now." He paused a moment. "If the Russians remotely query one of the artillery pieces while it is in bypass, they will know what we have done. They will know if a nuclear warhead has been loaded and if it is armed. But, they will not be able to override our control."
         "How long will it take to make this change to the other artillery pieces?"
         "The conversion will be complete in two weeks ."
                   ***
         President Larson slouched in the seat in the small private study next to the Oval Office. He laid the briefing book on the end table and took off his reading glasses. He stared out the window as he considered the proposal. A recommendation that he approve a large-scale NATO wargame. Operation WAVEFRONT simulated the rapid deployment of short-range nuclear missiles and ground forces in response to a surprise Russian deployment of nuclear Iskander mobile missile launchers in Belarus.
         The sun was just below the horizon and the sky was a soft rosy red towards the west on this crisp autumn day. He knew next to nothing about nuclear weapons when he started on the path to the presidency. It was one of the first briefings he requested, he wanted to understand the basics of the technology, their effects, and how they were used in warfare. They were even more horrible than he imagined. A single weapon can devastate a large city in seconds, with a firestorm, blast wave, and prompt gamma radiation. The energy bursts forth from a small core, about the size of a basketball with a flash of light so bright it blinds people. The destructive force is measured in kilotons and megatons, thousands and millions of tons of dynamite equivalence. More death and deprivation follow due to the long-term effects of nuclear fallout. Nuclear annihilation only required an unhinged leader or a tragic miscalculation.
          He picked up the briefing package, it was time to head back to the residence for dinner with his wife. The Joint Chiefs, Secretary of Defense, and intelligence chiefs are all in favor of the exercise. They would move missile batteries during the exercise however they would not have nuclear warheads. They assured him the Russians would know that the launchers were not nuclear. They can have their war game. He took the pen from his pocket and checked the box APPROVED POTUS and signed the cover memo. He shuffled out of the room and laid the package on his desk in the Oval Office as he headed for the door.
                   ***
         Operation WAVEFRONT was underway a few months later. The administration encouraged limited media coverage of the exercise, but the nuclear dimension remained 'secret'. The Russians watched closely and they generally knew what was going on. There are unencrypted segments embedded in the communications that make it clear this is part of a simulated exercise, precautions put into place due to some near misses years ago. Cases where military exercises by one side were misinterpreted by the other side as military operations, leading to dangerous escalations in nuclear readiness. The Russians carefully monitored communications, tried to break encrypted messages, and studied force movements. A good opportunity to assess NATO capabilities. They also want to verify that it is nothing more than an exercise.
         The US-NATO theater commander gave the order to move the missile batteries for the exercise, "Deploy the six guardian vehicles, to the coordinates in the plan of battle." The Guardian three is a controversial new US short-range nuclear missile on a mobile transport. It carries four missiles each with a 100 KT warhead with a range of around four hundred miles. The transport launchers used in the exercise are Guardian two conventional mobile missile launchers. They are very similar to their nuclear siblings, but the Russians know the difference.
         The command orders make their way to each of the lieutenants in the American units operating a guardian. They deploy with infantry and mechanized cavalry soldiers providing support and security. Three vehicles are dispatched from Poland toward the border with Belarus and three from outside of Kiev toward the border with Belarus. Once they arrive at their designated coordinates; each vehicle receives initial electronic targeting authorization codes approved by POTUS.
                   ***
         President Romochenko has been in and out of the new surveillance room frequently over the last few months. He made sure the Russian intelligence feeds were right down the hall from his office. It made him feel important to watch the monitors. The young officer in charge today, Yuri, is younger than the other watch officers. Yuri stood at attention "Good morning, Comrade President"
         "Good morning lieutenant. Please keep your attention on your work. Is there much to see today?"
         "Yes sir, WAVEFRONT, the NATO operation has a lot of movement today on the Polish and Ukrainian borders."
         Romochenko pointed at satellite images on one of the monitors. "What are those formations?" He has never served in the military and does not bother to keep himself properly briefed.
         Yuri wants to impress the President. "Those are the light armored attack columns, a classic NATO fast-moving ground strike formation, behind them are the infantry units.
          This looks like much more than a few soldiers practicing for an exercise. Romochenko reads the Western press and has seen the calls by the Americans to take him to the Hague. They claim he is a war criminal for supplying chemical agents to terrorists in Syria. Would they try and take me from power or even take control of Belarus? "How far are they from the border? Are they close?"
         Yuri studied a monitor. "Two kilometers away at the closest point."
         Romochenko gestured at a live video feed on another monitor. "What is that large truck with something standing up on the trailer?"
         Yuri is surprised the President does not seem to know much about military equipment. "That is a guardian mobile missile launcher." He smiled with a sense of pride. "The Russians must have intercepted and decrypted some of their messages."
         He tapped on a computer monitor. "That missile launcher received authorization for the preliminary targeting of their launch computer for four MK 100 kiloton nuclear warheads. One more command from the US President and they can launch." Yuri did not know that the message was an unencrypted one that the Americans wanted the Russians to intercept. He assumed that President Romochenko understood this was all part of the wargames.
         Romochenko hid his shock and dismay. Nuclear weapons would not be allowed in a practice exercise. He pointed at the video monitor. "Nuclear warheads? You're sure?"
         "Yes sir."
         "How soon before they are ready?" The Americans are using these nukes as a threat against Moscow. Voronin is going to let the Americans take me.
         Yuri paused for a moment. "They are not in their final formations yet. Maybe a day or two away."
         Romochenko nearly ran back to his office carrying a few hard copies of maps he asked Yuri to print out. He had his assistant place a call to General Gromokov. "Hello, Comrade President."
          "Deploy the Tyulpan 2S4 immediately, five on the border with Poland and five on the border with the Ukraine. I will send you some maps showing the NATO deployment, concentrate them across the border from their forces."
         "That's just an exercise Comrade President. It's a dangerous provocation to deploy these weapons."
         "They are using the exercise as a ruse. I saw it all on the feed the Russians gave us. I saw the nuclear missiles myself and messages for the initial arming of the warheads. Our watch officer has access to Russian messages with intercepts of American orders. Deploy all forty nuclear-tipped shells. The Russians have abandoned us." He paused a moment. "Do it or you will be executed for treason. Do you understand!"
         "Yes, Comrade President. It will not take long; the artillery units and shell storage areas are deployed near both borders."
          "Let me know when they are ready."
                   ***
         A few hours later, Voronin's chief of staff burst into the president's office during a meeting with his chief economic advisor. "Excuse me, Comrade President. There is an urgent military matter."
          Voronin dismissed his economic advisor and waved to a seat. "You look as if you have seen a dead friend. What has happened?"
          "I prefer to stand." He took in a deep breath. "One of our military surveillance units ran a remote query of the Tyulpan 2S4 units in Belarus. Two of them had nuclear warheads in the cannons and with a preliminary arming signal. Thirty minutes later, two more were armed. I think they intend to deploy."
         Voronin stood up. "Override them. Contact GRU."
         "They tried. They cannot. We suspect they have modified the arming circuits."
         Voronin clenched his fists. "Get that moron Romochenko on the phone."
         "We have been trying him as well as his chief of staff and other advisors. They are not answering our calls."
         Voronin took a deep breath. He shuffled over to a window and stared out for a few minutes. "He has been watching the NATO exercise with our intelligence feed. He thinks the Americans are coming after him. He has told me about this irrational fear. He is truly an idiot." Voronin sighed as he shook his head. I turned him into a dangerous fool.
         "Should we let the Americans know what he might be up to?"
         Voronin sat back down at his desk. "We need to move fast. This is what we are going to do."
                   ***
         President Larson stared at the image on the large display on the monitor in the Situation Room. He gestured at CIA Director Sweigart. "How can we be sure those are nuclear shells next to those ten mechanized cannons?"
         Sweigart nodded to the division director giving the briefing. The division director clicked the remote and a new slide came up on the monitor. "This slide shows the difference in the storage housings for conventional shells and nuclear shells. The imagery confirms that the storage housings next to each unit are nuclear."
         He clicked the remote again. "This thermal imaging is the best evidence. The outside air temperature in this location is twenty-nine degrees Fahrenheit. The yellowish color on the tip of each housing cone is a dead giveaway. The tips of these shells are slightly warm due to the radioactive decay of the nuclear warhead. All of the locations show the same signature. Confidence level of nearly one hundred percent. Those are nuclear shells."
         Sweigart finished the briefing. "They had to come from Russia." He paused a moment. "The ones they promised were completely decommissioned per treaty obligations."
         Larson turned his attention to the Secretary of State. "You discussed this with their Ambassador and their Foreign Minister?"
         "Yes, Mr. President. They insist we are mistaken. They confirm Belarus has ten Tyulpan 2S4 mechanized mortars but insist they are not nuclear capable. They say that all nuclear shells were decommissioned."
         The National Security advisor, Andrew Friedman, spoke up. "Mr. President, it's clear that Belarus has deployed short-range tactical nuclear weapons near our troops. We don't have time to determine whether they did this with or without Russian approval. We need to consider how this might play out."
         Larson nodded his head in agreement. "Let's hear what you're thinking."
                   ***
         The next day, Andrew Friedman rushed into the Oval Office, interrupting a meeting between the President and Secretary of Commerce. "Excuse me Mr. President we need to get to the Situation Room. It involves our troops in Poland and the Ukraine."
         The other members of the NSC were already in the room as President Larson took his seat. "Is this part of the exercise?"
         Secretary of Defense Cox answered, "The exercise has been terminated, this is real. General Mills, please bring us all up to speed."
         Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mills, began to speak as two maps came up on the large monitor. "These are the six locations in Poland and the Ukraine where we deployed guardian two mobile missile launchers during WAVEFRONT. We chose the guardian two, because of its similarity with the nuclear-capable guardian three. We knew the Russians could not possibly mistake them for the nuclear versions."
         Mills focused his attention on President Larson. "Approximately ninety minutes ago, we had reports of a strike on this missile launcher in Poland, circled in red. No signatures from a missile and no aircraft. We have confirmed that it was hit by one of the tactical nuclear warheads from Belarus. Our alert aircraft have taken out all ten Belarus nuclear cannons."
         Mills maintained his calm but grave demeanor. "We have been attacked with nuclear weapons and we must assume Russia is behind this attack. We are at war Mr. President."
         Larson clenched his jaws. "How many military dead? Estimates of civilian deaths in Poland."
         General Mills answered, "We estimate seven thousand American deaths and five hundred soldiers from other NATO countries. These are small warheads, civilian deaths are limited to two small villages, a little more than one thousand. Those are preliminary numbers."
         CIA Director Sweigart answered his desktop phone. He put the phone back in the cradle. "Bring up WNN on one of the monitors."
         "They all watched and listened to the reporter with the tagline Breaking News Nuclear Attack on the bottom of the screen. "We are going to a live broadcast from Russian television."
         They listened to the translator as President Voronin spoke, "My fellow Russians, I have news of a great tragedy and deception, involving US and NATO armed forces. We have been monitoring a major NATO exercise in Poland and the Ukraine, led by US forces. Simulating a nuclear attack on Russia with Belarus as the gateway. We now know that the wargame was a cover intended to hide a real attack."
         Voronin continued with a stern expression, "Several hours ago, we detected a message sent to six guardian three nuclear mobile missile launchers, three in Poland and three in the Ukraine. We decrypted the messages and discovered authorization for the nuclear launchers to attack Belarus and Russian targets with their twenty-four warheads. Luckily our GRU military intelligence forces were prepared for such a sneak attack. We were able to insert a software bug into their launchers. If the launch button was activated, the computer virus would cause the nuclear warhead to detonate inside the launch vehicle when the missile engine began firing."
         President Voronin paused and took a drink of water. "That is what we believe happened nearly two hours ago. An American soldier pressed a launch button expecting to send a nuclear missile at a Russian or Belarusian city. It exploded before the missile left the launch pad. They killed themselves with their own nuclear weapon on orders of President Larson. We were saved by the grace of God. It appears the warhead only partially detonated with a limited nuclear yield, but the loss of life on the American side will be substantial."
         Voronin kept weaving his tale, "American fighter planes then attacked several batteries of Belarus military after the attempted nuclear strike. We have deployed Russian special forces to those Belarus locations to secure those spots."
         Voronin looked down and sighed as he looked back up. "We tried to evacuate President Romochenko, his chief of staff, and two senior military advisers by plane. The plane was shot out of the air by a US fighter jet."
         Director Sweigart muttered, "Voronin is going all in, he killed Romochenko. He's making this look like an American attack."
         Voronin finished, "This has been a dark day and I'm afraid this is just the beginning; I will do everything in my power to protect the Russian people and the people of Belarus."
         The screen went blank and the feed went back to the WNN studio. The reporter continued, "All television and radio in Russia has gone off the air."
         Vice President Packard stood up. "Andrew is right. He's going to attack the United States with nuclear weapons."
                   ***
         Voronin's cold blue eyes stared at the deployment status monitor. "What's the status of the EUS2 targeting package? Is it ready?"
         The supreme commander answered, "Yes sir, the submarines have the launch codes. They are on station at launch depth ready for you to give the launch order."
         Voronin pointed at his chief of staff. "Place the call now."
         Two massive Russian Typhoon submarines were five hundred miles off the US east coast. Their targeting computers aimed nuclear missiles at the twenty largest cities in the Eastern United States and twenty continental US military facilities.
                   ***
         Andrew Friedman answered his desktop phone. "It's the duty officer Mr. President. He has the Russian President on the line."
         Larson glanced at Secretary of Defense Cox. "Are we ready?"
         "Yes sir."
         Larson paused a moment. "Kill the Typhoons and send the targeting codes to our Tridents."
         Larson stood up. "Put Voronin through and put it on speaker." He interrupted Voronin and the English translator. "We know you had two Typhoon class submarines off our east coast. They are now at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean. We have two trident missile boats off your coast in the Arctic Ocean. They are both at launch depth and ready to pull the trigger. You need to immediately stand down all of your nuclear forces."
         Everyone in the situation room waited to hear the response of the Russian President. Would the world end today in a thousand flashes of brilliant light? President Larson had authorized targeting package RU10 for the two Trident submarines; they would destroy five of the largest cities in Russia and five military bases.
         Andrew Friedman had been partially correct in the supposition he shared with the National Security Council. He suggested that a Russian strategic nuclear attack might follow the deployment of short-range tactical nukes in Belarus. He had not anticipated a first strike with a tactical weapon from Belarus, only a fool would do that. Secretary Cox and the defense chiefs expected the Russians would use their submarines for a covert strike and they put the wheels in motion to be ready. The Russian sailors in the Typhoons were blind to the new silent torpedoes that came from two Los Angeles class attack submarines lying in wait.

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