Fantasy Football and the Big Picture

The importance of keeping NFL team expectations in mind when preparing for the 2025 season

While warmer temperatures are a sign that summer is just around the corner they are also a reminder that we should be stepping-up our preparation for the 2025 fantasy football season. The NFL draft is still a couple weeks away but we have enough information about team rosters to start formulating strategies and developing player rankings. While there will be a lot of updating and adjusting to be done in the coming months these initial steps of preparation are very important. Strategical mistakes that we make during these early phases of preparation can negatively affect the rest of our team building strategies throughout the season. One such mistake is focussing too much on the details of player rankings and not enough on the bigger picture.

Accurately ranking players for the upcoming season is certainly one of the most important parts of a successful fantasy football strategy, but I have a tendency to get so caught up in player rankings that I forget to keep the bigger picture in mind. The bigger picture being that the players on our fantasy teams are also on NFL teams and the success of those NFL teams (especially offensive success) will have a significant impact on the success of our fantasy teams.

When fantasy football enthusiasts are constructing their player rankings they use a variety of information such as past player performance, player age, depth-chart situation, and opportunity share. While it is good to consider as many factors as possible when developing our rankings I find it very easy to lose track of the bigger picture in the process. I tend to spend so much time focussing on the details of my player rankings that I forget to think about team success on the football field. This can be very costly when it comes to winning fantasy football championships because player rankings don’t translate directly to fantasy football success.

In other words, if we get too caught up in the details of the player rankings we will forget to think about what NFL teams we think will score the most points. This is important because players on NFL teams that score a lot of points will have a lot of opportunities to score points for our fantasy football teams. I know that NFL team expectations should be baked into any good ranking system, but I think we should also use our team expectations as a side tool when selecting players. This will act as a reminder that a slightly inferior player on a superior team has a good chance of outscoring a slightly superior player on an inferior team.

My recommendation is that you construct an NFL team performance rankings list along side your player rankings. I would start by putting together a rough draft of your player rankings to get your mind focussed on this year’s player pool and the offseason moves that each team made. Once the rough draft of your player rankings is complete move on to ranking each NFL team based on how you think they will perform offensively. Then, as we move through the preseason and into the regular season keep updating your team rankings along with your player rankings.

Your reward for the extra work will be an additional tool that you can use when making decisions about the construction of your team. Ideally, it will become second nature that you reference both your player rankings and team rankings every time you need to make a decision about your fantasy football team. I know many of us already consider team performance when making decisions, but this will make sure that we don’t lose track of the bigger picture in the process. Winning fantasy football championships is all about making good decisions and this is one way to improve your decision making process.

While you can quickly download team performance rankings and statistical projections from the internet I recommend building your own personalized team rankings. By personalizing your rankings you will be more confident that your rankings reflect your personal vision of the 2025 season. After all, we are putting in this work because we want our teams to reflect our ideas, predictions, and strategies.

I also recommend ranking each NFL team based on how you think they will perform on defense. This is helpful because teams with good defenses tend to run the ball more (these teams generally don’t need to score as many points to win) and teams with bad defenses tend to throw the ball more (these teams generally need to score more points to win). Therefore, if I am choosing between two equally ranked running backs, I prefer the running back from the team with the better defense. Conversely, I prefer to have quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends from teams with bad defenses.

Fantasy football championships are won by making good decisions. If you follow the process I described above I am confident that you will make better decisions about your fantasy team and get one step closer to a 2025 championship. Just remember, a slightly inferior player on a superior team has a good chance of out scoring a slightly superior player on an inferior team.

Jared Haas April 9, 2025