Can Academy Awards Predict Elections?

So the Academy Awards are just around the corner and it´s a Presidential election year. In case, you don´t know what that means, some people claim that there is a system for using the Academy Awards to predict the outcome of Presidential Elections. If an upbeat film wins Best Picture, the people are happy and the incumbent party will keep the White House. If a downbeat film wins, there is enough dissatisfaction to indicate that the incumbent party will lose the White House.

The obvious problem here is that it isn´t always clear exactly whether a film is upbeat or not. Some films are a little ambiguous which makes it easy for defenders of the system to get away with doublespeak.

What follows is an attempt to apply the system to every Presidential election which has occurred in my lifetime. Maybe sometime if I have some more free time on my hands, I´ll go back and see how it fared with every Presidential election since the Academy Awards started, but for now, we´ll stick with. Oh, and by the way, if you haven´t seen some of these movies, then I should probably post a minor spoiler alert. I won´t give away anything major, but you never know how some people will react.

In 1976, when Republican Gerald Ford was President, the Best Picture went to One Flew Over the Cuckoo´s Nest. That was pretty dark, so I guess it makes sense that Democrat Jimmy Carter won the election.

Four years later, when Carter was running for reelection, the best picture was Kramer vs. Kramer. That movie ended with single Dad, Dustin Hoffman, losing custody of his son to b-----, Meryl Streep, so Carter lost to Ronald Reagan.

Four years later, when Reagan was running for reelection, Best Picture went to Terms of Endearment. I actually never saw this one, but I understand that it´s about a woman who gets cancer and dies. So by my reckoning Reagan should have lost, but defenders of the system claim that the movie is actually cheerful because the family rallies together. Like I said, I never saw it, so I´ll let them have this one.

Four years after that, when Reagan´s Vice-President, the older George Bush, was running against Michael Dukakis, Best Picture was The Last Emperor. Now I did see that one and I absolutely refuse to call it upbeat. The title character is reduced from Emperor to gardener in a Red Chinese Labor Camp. In fact, even defenders of the system don´t try to call this one upbeat. They admit that Bush should definitely have lost to Dukakis.

Four years after that, when Bush was running for a second term, the Best Picture was Silence of the Lambs. This is another ambiguous one. The main conflict ends happily with Buffalo Bill brought to justice, but the last thing we see is Hannibal Lector at liberty, so maybe that explains why Bush lost to Bill Clinton.

Four years after that, when Clinton was running for a second term, it was Braveheart. That movie ended with Mel Gibson being tortured to death (No jokes about how that would be an upbeat ending, please.) But defenders of the system will point out that the Scots getting Freedom made it upbeat enough for Clinton to get reelected.

Four years after that, when Al Gore ran against the younger George Bush, the Best Picture was American Beauty. The protagonist commits suicide at the end of that one, so I guess it was appropriate that the Republicans take the White House.

Four years later, the younger Bush was running for reelection, the Best Picture was Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. That was an upbeat film with the ring being destroyed, the king returning (duh), and peace returning to Middle Earth. So Bush was reelected.

Four years after that, when John McCain ran against Barack Obama the best Picture was No Country for Old Men. That was a violent film where the bad guy got away at the end, so the Republicans lost the White House.

Finally, four years after that, when Obama was running for his second term. The Artist won. I actually didn´t see this either, but the Wickipedia entry makes it sound pretty happy, so I guess it makes sense that Obama was reelected.

That brings us to now. Which of the current nominees for Best Picture would be good news for the Democrats(i.e. Cheerful films)? Which would be good news for the Republicans (i.e. depressing films)?