The Futurist

This is the official transcript of the televised interview that took place on March 31, 2010 between renowned news personality Gunther Grant and self-proclaimed futurist Keller Van Ostenberg. Any views or opinions expressed herein are those of the individuals speaking and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the network.

GUNTHER GRANT: Tonight we have a very special guest on the program. Futurist Keller Van Ostenberg is here to tell us about upcoming trends that, well, we have no idea are coming.

[KVO ENTERS STUDIO TO LIMITED APPLAUSE, TAKES SEAT]

KELLER VAN OSTENBERG: It's an honor to be here, Gunther.

GG: I'm sure it is. So, Keller, you call yourself a futurist. Care to explain what exactly that means?

KVO: Absolutely. Futurism, or futurology, is an attempt to systematically predict upcoming trends, scenarios, markets ... things like that.

GG: Futurology ... so that would make you a futurologist?

KVO: We don't like that term. It's so ... ridiculous.

GG: We don't disagree there.

KVO: Futurist is a much better job descriptor.

GG: What about fortune teller? Or psychic?

KVO: You're a skeptic. I can tell.

GG: Really? What gave it away?

KVO: It's understandable. I mean, people pay me hundreds of thousands of dollars to predict future trends, which is, by definition, an inexact science.

GG: I'm not entirely sure it's a science at all.

KVO: I'll tell you what. I'm going to give you a free consultation. I do it for all the people who doubt the validity of what I do.

GG: That's really not necessary. I'm not sure what--

KVO: Kiwi.

GG: Excuse me?

KVO: Kiwi's going to be big in the next few years. Do yourself a favor and get in now, before everyone else jumps on the bandwagon.

GG: Kiwi ... uh, thanks.

KVO: Don't mention it.

GG: You know, it seems to me that what you do is a lot like a meteorologist.

KVO: In what way?

GG: Well, a meteorologist gives a prediction about the weather; say, it's going to rain on Thursday. Then, come Thursday, it either is, and he says, "See? I told you so," or it isn't, and he says, "Yeah, well this isn't an exact science or anything."

KVO: I suppose that's a good analogy. Pretty close, actually.

GG: And yet meteorologists don't charge five hundred dollars an hour to give their weather predictions.

KVO: True, but that's because it's the weather. I deal with the future. Future market trends, future scenarios ... future business opportunities.

GG: You guess what those futures will be.

KVO: I predict ... based upon my years of knowledge and experience.

GG: Give me an example of something you've predicted that's come true.

KVO: Pink cars.

GG: Right.

KVO: Think about it. How often do you see a pink car on the road?

GG: I don't know; every once in a while.

KVO: And how often did you see a pink car on the road ten years ago?

GG: Rarely.

KVO: My point exactly. Ten years ago, I predicted to the auto industry that the sale of pink cars would significantly increase in the future.

GG: Most of the pink cars I see on the road are from company-branded vehicles like Mary Kay or Lipstick Bail Bonds, both of which have nearly doubled their revenues in the past ten years, making it increasingly likely to see one of their ever-expanding fleet of vehicles on the road.

KVO: Precisely.

GG: But the sale of pink cars has only increased marginally for automakers, and it was a function of companies expanding based on a solid business plan. That's like saying iPhones are going to spike in popularity when the new one comes out. It's a given, isn't it?

KVO: Is it?

GG: Is it what?

KVO: Is it a given? Who's to say?

GG: Okay, now you're just talking in circles.

KVO: There's no saying what will create a trend. Maybe it's a superior product, or the perception of a superior product. Maybe it's not a superior product at all, but word of mouth, ease of availability, or even an excellent marketing campaign. Ever see those infomercials late at night? By and large, they sell crap. Pure crap. And yet people buy it, because the infomercials convince them that they need to buy it. They create a need, and the exploitation of that need creates a trend.

GG: So you create trends?

KVO: No, creating trends is for the advertisers and marketing execs. I just pick up on them and tell people what to expect.

GG: For a fee.

KVO: Hey, we've all got to earn a living.

GG: And what qualifies one for a job as a futurist? Sources tell me that you're often seen leafing through magazines, tearing out pages; circling articles in the newspaper; reading blogs and advice columns.

KVO: Everyone's got their own process.

GG: But it seems like you just ... pick things out of the air and say, "This is what will be popular."

KVO: I can see how it might seem like that to someone on the outside.

GG: Enlighten me.

KVO: Now you're just trying to figure out my secrets, Gunther.

GG: Actually, I'm trying to figure out how anyone would pay money for someone to guess at future trends. Seems like something they could do themselves and save a bunch of money.

KVO: People pay other people to write letters for them, answer phones, even pick up the laundry or drive the kids to school. Why wouldn't people pay someone else to guess what future has in store?

GG: So you admit you're guessing.

KVO: It's educated guessing. Like making a scientific hypothesis or meticulously-researched prediction.

GG: People pay you significant amounts of money, so you can tell them what you think will be popular in the next month, next year, or next decade. You have virtually no obligations to the people you advise, no responsibility for the information you give them, and they have no way of verifying your process and assessing whether it actually is a well-researched prediction, or a snap decision you made over a bowl of Cheerios in the morning. How do you sleep at night?

KVO: Quite well, actually. I have a corner apartment on the Upper East Side and silk sheets that cost more than your car payment. Oh, and I usually have a runway model or two sleep over.

GG: Charming. All right, I think we're just about out of time for this segment. Is there anything else you'd like to share with our viewers about your "business?"

KVO: The future is intangible. It's not about seeing the future ... it's about making the future come true.

GG: That was ... rather disturbing. Any parting words?

KVO: Kiwi.

GG: Wonderful.

KVO: Mark my words. It's going to happen.

GG: This has been Gunther Grant, here with Keller Van Ostenberg ... futurist and predictor of future trends. Make of that what you will. Thanks for watching.


EPILOGUE: Four months later, Gunther Grant made a fortune in kiwi-centric investments. He is now retired and considering a career in futurism.



AUTHOR'S NOTE: Futurism is a real area of study, and futurists have been around for decades. This emerging business phenomenon has been written about in articles by Forbes   and the Wall Street Journal  .



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