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This week: The Odds & Chances of Success Edited by: Jeff  
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"The two most engaging powers of an author are to make
new things familiar, and to make familiar things new."
-- Samuel Johnson
Trivia of the Week: Ray Bradbury has been credited with writing 27 novels and over 600 short stories. During a 2001 keynote speaking engagement, he gave twelve pieces of writing advice to his audience including suggesting that writers begin with short stories rather than novels, and to not get into writing expecting to make money. Bradbury was 37 before he could afford his first car (and even then never got his license).
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THE ODDS & CHANCES OF SUCCESS
A great many excellent quotes about writing can be attributed to Ray Bradbury. The one I want to focus on in this week's For Authors newsletter relates to both the quality and quantity of an author's work:
"Write a short story every week.
It's not possible to write 52 bad short stories in a row."
As referenced in the trivia above, Ray Bradbury gave the keynote address during Point Loma Nazarene University's Writer's Symposium By the Sea in 2001. He offered twelve pieces of advice to young authors (the full list and a video can be viewed here ). One of the suggestions was to start out writing short stories rather than novels. Bradbury's rationale was that novels take much longer to write and you're better of cranking out lots and lots of short stories until you understand how to tell an effective story.
What Bradbury's suggesting isn't far off from how probability and odds work in mathematics. Imagine flipping a coin; you've got a 50/50 chance of it coming up heads. Sure, each flip of the coin is the same 50/50 chance... but what is the likelihood of flipping it five times, ten times, twenty times and having it never once come up heads? Or what about a roulette wheel in a casino? European roulette gives you a 1-in-37 chance of having a specific number come up (it's 1-in-38 for American roulette) on each spin of the wheel. Even while those may seem like long odds, what are the chances your number won't hit after playing forty times? Or four hundred? Or four thousand? On a long enough timeline and over an extensive enough sample size, your chances of meeting with success increase based on the number of trials attempted, even if the individual probability of each individual outcome remains the same. In order for a coin flip to maintain a 50/50 probability, it has to come up heads roughly as often as it comes up tails. That trend may not be apparent in only five coin flips... but I'd be willing to bet that after five hundred or five thousand or fifty thousand coin flips, you'd see heads coming up roughly as often as tails.
The same is true with writers and their stories. Not every single story is going to be a hit. In fact, you might have a long string of failed stories, especially if you're just starting out and learning the basics of storytelling by trial and error. But if you write enough stories, one of them is bound to be decent. Bradbury says that number is fifty-two... so if you write a story a week for an entire year, you're bound to have at least one of them be successful since it's unlikely that any writer is statistically unlikely to write fifty-two stinkers in a row.
At my day job in the entertainment industry, I see this a lot. (It's probably also true of publishing, but I figured I'd speak from a place of personal experience.) There are some writers who will write one screenplay and send it out trying to get an agent or sell it to a studio. Maybe that one screenplay is good and maybe it isn't... but the chances of that one screenplay being the specific thing that the specific person reading it is looking for at that specific time... well, the odds aren't good. It's really hard to quantify subjective odds, but estimates on the chances of selling a screenplay range from anywhere between 5,000-to-1 on the low end, to 250,000-to-1 or more on the high end... which means your odds of selling that one screenplay you've written are actually less likely than having twins without any genetic predisposition, being struck by lightning, or hitting the jackpot on a three-reel slot machine in Vegas. But just like those frustrating one-armed bandits on the casino floor, those are the odds for one shot at the prize. Statistically, the more times you play, the more chances you have of hitting the jackpot (even if the odds remain the same).
The same logic is used by people every day when they buy extra raffle tickets for a fundraiser. The odds of each individual ticket being drawn aren't any better than any other, but if you have a fistful of tickets, that's more chances to win!
It shouldn't come as a surprise that it's the same way with writing. One screenplay (or one novel) is only one chance at hitting the very rare jackpot of having a hit on your hands. Heck, it's a rare jackpot to even make money from it at all. But if you have multiple screenplays or multiple books, you have multiple chances of getting your desired outcome, even if the odds are still long. I can't count the number of screenwriters I know who have written one script (in some cases even a great script) and flamed out after that one project didn't go the distance. Conversely, the screenwriters I know who have achieved some degree of success (which I define as making a living from their screenwriting) are all people who crank out as much material as possible. They maximize their chances of writing something that the right person in the right place at the right time wants by writing a whole bunch of stuff and hoping something sticks.
Whether you listen to Ray Bradbury's specific advice about starting with short stories rather than novels, or writing fifty-two of them over the course of a year, you should definitely heed his advice as it relates to your odds of success. Your odds in the writing profession will be long no matter how you look at them... but you can increase your number of chances at success by writing as much product as you can.
With that in mind, in addition to featuring author items to read below, I've also included a link to three activities (my own included) that encourage you to do more than just write a single story. Those contests that have independent entries are great, but while we're on the topic of high volume writing this week, I wanted to highlight a few activities you might want to consider that will motivate you to write as often as possible.
Until next time,
Jeff
If you're interested in checking out my work:
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I encourage you to check out the following items:
| | Breakthrough! [ASR] #2033162
A progressive, multi-step writing challenge for all members of Writing.Com.
by Jeff |
EXCERPT: A progressive, multi-stage writing contest open to all members of Writing.Com! This activity will sporadically appear to promote a particular genre and/or type of writing. The basic idea is that participants are challenged to write five pieces of increasing length and complexity over the course of the activity. Sometimes the contest will involve rewriting and expanding the same story and other times will involve writing five separate stories.
EXCERPT: This contest challenges you to write and review at least once a week for the three freshest months of the year.
EXCERPT: A persistent, multi-round contest in which entrants are paired/grouped off to compete head-to-head, each by writing a story about a character of their own creation overcoming their opponent's character, until a single entrant stands as victor.
EXCERPT: "Mama, Mama!" cried little Jackson Blackburn. "Johnny's done gone and killed a cat!"
The youngest of the Blackburn children, Jackson was a tow-headed, blue eyed, gentle child. His eyes now brimming with tears, he threw his arms around his mother's waist and sobbed.
EXCERPT: Chad was not having the best week. Management issued several informal and then formal warnings to him regarding his attitude at work. Three had been that week alone; also, his DVR erased the current season of his favorite television program he had yet to catch up on. His boss summoned him to the conference room for a talk, and Chad was hoping this was going to be a talk to commend him on his efforts to improve on the behavior addressed in his warning.
EXCERPT: “I have had it!” Mona screamed. Too bad it was only in her head and no one heard her. The bickering and fighting was taking it's toll on Mona and her husband. How could they raise four beautiful children, who could seemingly hate each other so much. Each child was kind, considerate, and a good student. That is when alone or with strangers, but with each other, never a kind word was spoken.
EXCERPT: “Do we have a deal Mr. Daniels?”
He in a black tailored suit with a red handkerchief in his left breast pocket that matched a red bow tie worn comfortably around his neck, stared at a piece of paper in his clean, smooth hands. They tremored slightly when he met the gaze of the coarse haired man sitting opposite of him in an armless chair. This man’s hair was a light brown cut short revealing all of his square face clean shaven except for a well groomed mustache. He stared back wide eyed, focused, and unyielding.
Mister Daniels looked at the paper then to its twin lying on the desk then back at the brown haired man whose mustache was a slight shade darker and said. “Yes we have a deal.”
EXCERPT: No one knew how the boats got there; they just appeared overnight as if by magic. We were all stunned. We had been on this island for what seemed like an eternity, maybe it was an eternity….
There were eight boats, all rowboats; about eight to nine feet long and maybe three feet wide in the middle. They were unremarkable in all respects except for the signs on the top of the back of each seat: ONLY FOUR PER BOAT.
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Feedback from my last newsletter about writing in multiple genres:
aegreenfield writes: "Thanks for the advice. I'm currently expanding my short story titled "Pretty Mary" into a novel. I will publish and promote it as an eBook. Seasoned writers have told me that I won't make a dime on it, but Mark Twain was told the same thing by seasoned writers of his day, too." (Submitted item: "Invalid Item" )
As long as you've put in the time and effort to make sure it's the best it can be, I think self-publishing is a great way to promote your work. Good luck with your book!
Quick-Quill  writes: "I wish I could post your NL to every person writing who thinks their book is the best thing ever written. Their ego is so strong they seek like minded people to pump up their self worth and then hit the SELF-PUB button! They sit back and wait while the 10-15 people who are friends buy their book out of charity or they just don't have and real sense of what a book should be. I'm not saying they are all junk. I'm saying that I'm careful. I'll ask for a sample read. I have read enough free-2.99 books that were hard to read. Could hold my interest and felt as if I were on one of those spiral roller coasters going down! Good editors cost money. I'm not talking a proof reader. I'm talking one who reads the whole thing and tells you were the holes in the plot are. Where it sags and is honest enough to say,"You don't need this character always showing up telling the MC what to do." Please listen to these people. I promise never to be so married to a plot or character that if a number of my trusted readers say AXE it, I say where do I sign the divorce papers?"
I sometimes think people lose sight of the fact that success and quality is the result of considerable effort. If you look up quotes about success, you find an endless number of people who talk about hard work, perseverance, commitment, sacrifice, time, practice, etc. You'd be hard pressed to find one that says, "Yeah, just rush through something and put it out in the world and you'll succeed!" And yet it seems like that's just how a lot of people approach their writing, expecting brilliance and wild success with only the minimal investment of effort. (Then again, it might just be that a lot of people suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect.  ) Self-publishing is a wonderful new way for original voices to be heard by the public... but I think the ones that truly succeed will be the ones who take the time and effort to hone that original voice rather than writing "The End" and immediately hitting the SELF-PUB button. 
Brandiwyn🎶  writes: "Jeff, you are a genius. First, your stats are mind-boggling. I got to the last one and thought, 'What?! 33% of 8.5+ BILLION dollars in revenue are going to indie / self-publishers?!' (I assume the market grew from 2014.) But then I thought, I know some of those folks, and they're lucky to claim $100 in revenue, so exactly how many authors are splitting this 33%? How many of them are making a living, skewing the numbers even lower for the rest of them? And in your very next paragraph, you addressed the problem.
You are spot on. Publishing is a business, and business is WORK. It's a job, not a hobby, and one that requires way more hats than most are comfortable wearing, which means most will have to hire a few things out. You can't successfully publish without investing in your own success.  It seems like an exciting time for both authors and publishers. I'd be interested in seeing the stats on small publishers, because I've read a few articles pointing to fear in the big houses.
Thanks for the research. I love the stats. They're fascinating. 
Cheers,
Michelle"
Thanks for writing in, Michelle! I agree that the stats are interesting (and in some cases staggering!), but that it's important to understand it's a business and all these numbers are useless without a product the market wants to buy. My wife and I love watching the show SHARK TANK, and it's amazing how often someone will come in with a business pitch that's basically along the lines of, "Such-and-such is a $20 billion a year industry, so invest in my company and we'll all make billions!" And the thing they never seem to understand is that you won't get much of that global industry revenue at all if you don't have a compelling product. For every author who gets a sizable chunk of the marketshare (like James Patterson or J.K. Rowling or Stephen King), you've got thousands of authors who make less than a couple hundred bucks a year... some justifiably so in a market where anyone can publish anything at any time! If you want a big chunk of a big market, you've got to have a great product.
creatress  writes: "This is a wonderful post and I am so glad that you shared it. Because self-publishing options make it is easy to overlook the fact that even the most savvy author needs help editing, designing, revising, and publicizing their work. You've got to have help and even have to be willing to help someone else to have real fulfillment or success. I wrote, illustrated and designed my own Kindle book, but I let other people take a look at it before I published it, and have been willing to accept help from others who were willing to promote it. It's just like being on a full time job!"
I couldn't agree more. Being a self-published author is very similar to being a small business owner. The demands of the market and requirements for success will always be there, and authors often have to make the choice not between whether to do something or not, but whether they have the time and inclination to do it themselves, or if they'd rather hire someone to take care of that facet of the job for them. 
SantaBee  writes: "Jeff, awesome ideas for the new and struggling author. Thanks for sharing. I agree - a lot has changed in 5 years with the additions of ebook readers. One thing I've noticed is that the Kindle Unlimited program has really cut back on sales due to the way it now markets ebooks. If you have time, maybe you could look at the advantages/disadvantages of the Kindle Unlimited program for authors?"
Thanks, Steph! From what I've read of the Kindle Unlimited program, it really depends on the individual book whether the program benefits you or not. What Kindle Unlimited essentially does is essentially takes revenue from all Kindle Unlimited monthly subscriptions, and pays each author a prorated share of that fund based on how many times your book has been downloaded that month. One of the more concerning statistics is that the per-unit royalty has steadily decreased for authors over time; between June and October 2014, it dropped from $2.20 each to $1.33 each. But even with it being $1.33, it's easy to see how that can be beneficial to some authors than others. An author that has a $0.99 title, for example, is making more per KU download ($1.33) than he or she is with a 35% royalty on the $0.99 purchase price. An author that has a $4.99 title, on the other hand, is making less per KU download ($1.33) than he or she would with their 70% royalty on their $4.99 purchase price. In my opinion, KU is an advantage for books priced below $2.99 which only get the 35% royalty... but if your work is in that "sweet spot" between $2.99 and $9.99 where you're collecting a 70% royalty on each sale, you really have to decide whether the lower royalty through KU is worth the increased readership from those likely to "rent" the book for free rather than buy it. I have a feeling the most effective KU strategy is to have only a few of your titles available through the program so that people can use the KU platform to discover your work, but without sacrificing that higher royalty on all your work. But that's just my humble opinion.
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For Authors: March 18, 2015 Issue [#6887]
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