Mercy! Mercy! That Dang Nabed PERCY!

Phase 1, Impeachment is over, where to next?

Well, the Impeachment Hearings have come to a close in the House of Representatives. Everybody has gone home for the Thanksgiving Recess. The Democrats muddied up President Trump a bit, but not a whole lot. For those who watched, seeing the process unfold was more educational than anything else. It showed we had some human beings doing the work of State. I got to see some impressive ambassadors, some lower level functionaries (with an over stated sense of self importance), a political appointee who loved the spotlight, and some ambassadors who were in over their heads. The partisanship of the State Department was evidenced as people not really required to testify, waved their hands wildly, begging to be included, claiming the only reason for their presence was a subpoena.

The whole "Circus" stemmed over a phone call between the new Ukrainian head of state, and President Trump where it was alleged that Trump used his power as chief Executive to try and get Yershenko to launch an investigation into his political rival, Joe Biden. Trump claimed the call was "Perfect" and the Democrats called foul, saying it was a gloved ultimatum and an abuse of power.

The Democrats felt that their case had been made, while the Republicans felt it had not. The polling showed that public opinion had not shifted much in the favor of the Democrats and indeed might have backfired. The Republicans claimed that the Committee Chair, Adam Schiff, had stacked the procedural deck and unfairly tainted the proceeding, insisting on a process for taking depositions, and selecting witnesses that tipped the fact finding in favor of the Democrats. Despite all their shenanigans, the Democrats failed to make their argument, which rested heavily on hearsay and emotional appeals. At best they showed that the President had a political motive for wanting to get Joe Biden's past political involvement brought into the spotlight. There is no doubt that during the Obama Administration, Biden played an important role in Ukraine policy making and that his son Hunter, got a lucrative job on the board of an Energy company that paid him hundreds of thousands of dollars. In summary, the Democrats cried foul and the Republicans pushed back, defending the President's actions.

Now that the first part is over where does all this go next? I'm not sure that Nancy Pelosi ever really wanted to go down the impeachment road. She yielded to pressure from her left leaning base and finally relented on a wait and see, two step process. The first phase was a fact finding exercise that would be used to justify a later vote on phase 2 which would vote on forwarding actual articles of impeachment. Now that the first part is over she is facing crunch time. Shown below is the problem she faces:

Definition: Determine the best way to proceed on impeachment.

Facts:

The 2020 election is less than a year away

The Democrats will be facing a formidable Republican opponent, Donald Trump

Trump's base is solidly behind him. He has a long list of accomplishments and the economy is booming.

The Democrats have not made as much political capital, in the past three years, focusing instead on hamstringing the current administration.

Polls show impeachment is not working for the Democrats. Doubling down on impeachment adds liability to 2020 Election hopes.

Assumptions: These are critical to Democrat's strategy.

Trump cannot be defeated in 2020 by any of the candidates currently in the running.

The best that can be hoped, if Trump does not commit a huge gaff, for is to hang onto the House of Representatives.

The next Presidential window of opportunity for the Democrats will be in 2024, when Trump will be no longer eligible to run.

Courses of Action:

1. Table impeachment and focus on solidifying a majority in the House of Representatives in 2020. Claim that the facts show the President abused his position but that there was not enough evidence to warrant impeachment. Vote to "Censure" President Trump. Focus on passing as much "Bipartisan" legislation as possible between now and 2020.

2. Put the matter in the hands of the members. Let them vote their conscience on wether to proceed or not.

3. Forward Articles of Impeachment and insist that all the Democrats get on the bandwagon.