O Pinions!

All Hail The Supremes!

All Hail The Supremes!
24.June.2015

Two remaining key cases in front of the Supreme Court will be decided before next week. Here are my opinions.

1. Health Care: The GOP had better hope that the Supremes uphold the ACA (aka Obamacare). If not, there will be chaos in Red State America... and the GOP will be rightly blamed.

An exception will be Kentucky. Kentucky was smart. They didn't whine about health care they did something about it. Regardless of the outcome they won't be devastated.

Most of Red America will suffer however.

And serves them right! I'm a proponent of universal single payee health care. I believe in the community based models from Scandinavia. I'm not a proper American to some. So be it.

Odds:

It remains as is. 5-4 split. It will remain a devisive issue until America thinks of itself as one nation.

2. Marriage

Two issues: Same sex-marriage and interstate recognition of marriages.

The second is easiest to dispense of. Marriage has traditionally been acknowledged across state borders. Unless the Supremes find a legalistic reason otherwise, I expect an 8-1 decision with only Alito dissenting. Could be written and presented by any of the justices.

The first... I find Roberts' questions intriguing. Since Thomas says nothing they could even have been from him initially. It would be less messy to rely on established law than create new ones. This court is quite conservative and shies away from new judicial territory. But like the conservative court that voted 9-0 in Brown v The Board of Education there will be an attempt by Roberts to not allow a 5-4 split on such an important issue. I think 6-3 is more likely, even 7-2 with Alito and possibly Scalia providing dissent. Alito because he lives in a by-gone age. Scalia because he loves to be contrary. Written by? The Notorious RBG... Roberts in the majority means he gets to choose who writes and reads it. Another possibility would be Thomas (just because... it was his ideas?) or Sotomayor (based on sex-discrimination, one of her beefs). But RBG would be a good bet because this is near and dear to her heart. Kennedy will write it if the split is 5-4 with Roberts dissenting. I think that is less likely. If so, bet that the reasoning will forge new grounds for protection based on sexual orientation. Expect more fights on all levels of government. I'm cheering for a 7-2 decision.

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