Kuwait Diary

Kuwait Diary -- April 5th, 2003

Day 17 of the 2nd Gulf war.
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The final stage of what is seen as the most unequal fight in modern times, has begun. The Iraqi army, a third world outfit, weakened by 12 years of sanctions and forced lack of modernization, pitted against the most modern, well equipped and well trained first world army in the world, has without a doubt put up a spirited fight. The outcome was a foregone conclusion. That the US army had to send for reinforcements is itself being considered by many Arabs as a moral victory. Given the high intensity propaganda war going on from both sides and the continuing gaps in the reports from the field and the high commands, it is difficult to gauge the true picture of ground realities. One thing is clear, the final battle for Baghdad has begun.

The US Marines claimed to have destroyed two divisions of the Republican guards. Significantly they have taken control of the airport 20 kilometers from the city. In their ongoing effort to drive home to the people that it is the regime of Saddam Hussein that they are after, they have already remaned Saddam airport to the more conventional name of Baghdad International Arport. Control of the airport will provide the logistical support that the US marines need to take the city of Baghdad. The US airforce will from now on fly over Baghdad city 24 hours a day.

Already civilian casualties are mounting. With two more suicide bombings in which 9 more US soldiers have died, the need for survival will make US soldiers want to protect their own lives rather than those of civilians irrelevant to immediate military objectives.

Military casualties are also mounting, more on the Iraqi side than on the coalition, but significant none the less. Unlike a wide eyed boy scout, I do not want to go into the ball by ball description of how many tanks and planes have been shot down. Needless to say there have been destruction on both sides. There have also been reports of surrender by scores of Iraqi soldiers. Many civilians as well as soldiers in civilian uniform have been fleeing Baghdad to the northwest with the most likely destination being Syria. There are very few US troops on the northern front unlike the south where there is a three pronged attack. It seems likely that unless there is a quick regime collapse, the chances of hand to hand urban warfare will be high.

US military leaders have given away little of their plans for Baghdad. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Richard Myers said at the weekend he did not like to use the word "siege" and the operation would be different from any operation of its kind seen in past conflicts.
But with so much international opposition to the war by US and British forces, experts said the invaders cannot afford a to copy Russian tactics in Chechnya that saw its capital reduced to rubble. It's not easy to win a street-fight without destroying the street, and the US Army is aware of this.

In a policy document on urban warfare released last September, the Joint Chiefs of Staff highlighted the strategy of the ancient Chinese commander Sun Tsu: "The worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities." Everything will depend on how many Iraqi forces remain loyal to Saddam Hussein in and around Baghdad. The British- led operation to take the southern city of Basra could become a test for the forces that take on Baghdad.

Out here in Kuwait City the maximum temperature is already at 37 degrees Celsius. In Baghdad the temperature has hit 39 degrees Celsius. This means that US marines are having to fight under temperatures exceeding 115 degrees Fahrenheit. A long siege in this heat coupled with the prospect of street fighting is not something that US forces would be looking favorably towards. As the days go by, the temperatures will keep on rising.

The British troops have been conducting an encircle-and-squeeze operation around Basra and have still not taken the city after 12 days of fighting. They came under rocket and mortar attack from the Iraqis once again today. Given ground realities, the US generals would want to finish the battle for Baghdad within the next few days, or it will become incredibly tough going.

Have WMD's been found yet? Even though the coalition troops are desperately looking for them, no weapons of mass destruction have been located. Perhaps after the war is over and people can talk more freely, something may emerge, but it seems more likely that WMD’s will not be used in this war. Thank God for small mercies.

Today, Condoleeza Rice came out quite strongly and said that the lion’s share of contracts for the reconstruction of Iraq will go to US firms. The House of Representatives passed a supplementary budget amendment excluding France, Germany, Russia and Syria from taking part in US-funded reconstruction bids in Iraq, because they opposed the US-led war in Iraq. Proposed by Minnesota congressman Mark Kennedy, the measure would even bar access by the four countries to information on reconstruction bids in Iraq."This amendment sends a signal to our allies that we appreciate those who support us in our time of need and remember those that have sought to thwart coalition efforts to defeat Saddam Hussein's regime." Traditional armies, after winning wars, have taken the spoils of war as a right. Thus, one does understand where all the muscle weilding comes from. In a crude kind of way, it is understandable too.

This war is about many things which are not being fought in the actual theatre of war. I will cover more of these aspects in a subsequent analysis. Not today though. With the collapse of the Soviet union, the USA is the world’s only remaining superpower. In a unipolar world, the show of brute strength is going to be unpopular and the tide of anti-Americanism that we have seen mushrooming across much of the world, will gather strength unless the US learns to deal with the new realities and show a more humane face. Presently, this is not very evident. Perhaps a path away from the likes of Rumsfeld and toward the paths taken by Presidents Eisenhower and Truman earlier, will show the way to the future.

This time, Iraq's senior Shia cleric and the spiritual rallying point for millions of Shias across the world has maintained a dignified silence as US troops take control of the holy city of Najaf, home to a theological school and the top Shia clergy.
Earlier, both, the Iraqi regime and the Bush administration, had claimed to have the backing of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. His supporters here in southern Iraq and Kuwait, however, have made it clear that Sistani had issued no fatwa in either party's favour and had let it be known that he would prefer to see his supporters not take sides in the current conflict.

Shias are the majority community in oil rich Iran and Iraq and a significant minority further south in Saudi Arabia. Some 50 miles from Najaf is the still holier city of Karbala, which marks the site of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet. Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad, houses the tomb of Imam Hussein's father, Imam Ali, who was also the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet.

More than 300,000 residents of the Basra region, including Najaf and Kerbala, were slaughtered on Saddam's orders in 1991 when the US stood aside after exhorting them to "rise up" against the Iraqi president. This time the community has barricaded itself behind closed doors, preferring to take the Ayatollah's advice.

"According to the information we received, there is no fatwa referring to Americans or Iraq, but he has asked people to remain neutral and not get involved," said a London-based spokesman for the Ayatollah.

Before the statement from the London representative, US Brigadier General Vincent Brooks had briefed the media about the Ayatollah's 'latest edict', describing it as a 'very significant turning point and another indicator that the Iraqi regime is approaching its end.' Brooks had also declared that Iraqi forces had taken up positions inside Najaf's Ali Mosque, one of the world's most important Shiite shrines, and were firing on coalition troops.
"The regime's use of the Ali Mosque for military purposes is just the latest detestable example of the regime's strategy of deliberately putting sacred sites in danger," he had said.

The coalition has designated all holy sites in Iraq as "no target" zones, only to be fired upon in self-defence. When coalition troops entering Najaf on Wednesday were fired upon by fidayeen fighters loyal to Saddam, they chose not to return the fire, Brooks said.

A local US commander defused a potentially explosive situation when he and his men were surrounded by a milling crowd in the city centre, according to eye witnesses. By laying his weapons on the ground he demonstrated that the coalition did not intend to harm either the Ayatollah or any of the holy sites. A spokesman for US forces in the city said there were negotiations with Sistani about how to govern Najaf in the absence of pro-Saddam forces.

Yesterday, I was stunned to see on TV, Saddam Hussein stepping out of a car in broad daylight onto a Baghdad street. But he also made Numan Cafe a landmark. Since Saddam's media stunt, the neighborhood has become a landmark for Baghdadis, some driving from remote parts of the capital. Only the cafe's owner Numan Thabet saw it coming. Thabet said he had been expecting "Comrade Saddam" to return to the old cafe where he once conspired for the successful coup d'etat that brought his Baath Party to power in the 1960s.

"I knew it in my heart that he would visit the cafe and encourage us to resist against the evil invaders violating our land," he said proudly. "He seemed nostalgic about the cafe, but I have a small regret -- it is that the overwhelming crowd around him prevented him from going in."

Numan Cafe has long been a famous meeting place on a busy corner in the city's al-Aazamiya neighborhood, but it became a landmark overnight when Saddam stood at its gate on Friday to be cheered by hundreds of people. Saddam, was shown on Iraqi television in olive green military garb, smiling broadly, accepting several kisses on his hand and holding a baby girl in his arms.
"I am the man you saw on television giving the military salute to Comrade Saddam Hussein. It was a great moment," said Amer Abdel Karim, deputy chief of the local Baath Party branch.

"He told me 'Afia'," or bravo in Arabic, enthused the graying man.
Abdel Karim was particularly happy to have made the Iraqi strongman laugh. "Saddam Hussein laughed heartily when he asked us why we were using flour bags instead of sandbags, and we told him that war had broken out quickly and we were running out of sandbags," he recalled.
"Do you know any leader as courageous? In other Arab countries where there is no war or anything like that, most leaders don't dare go out," Abdel Karim said.

"He is being tracked down by the most powerful country with the mightiest army in the world. He dares go out when thousands of American missiles, bombs and warplanes are targeting him," he said.
At Saddam's first stop in the nearby al-Mansour residential neighborhood, the al-Sa'ah restaurant, he was also cheered by dozens of people. But employees at the restaurant remember one more thing: Saddam insisted his bodyguards settle the bill for a take-away order.
"Watch out Bush," said one of them, "Saddam always pays his dues."
Anymore wisecracks anybody?


Kuwait completed the construction of a pipeline which has started bringing much needed water into places like Umm Qasr. These supplies will be extended to cities like Basra when it does come under coalition control. In this land of deserts, this is a significant development and the government of Kuwait has done well with this initiative.

While the mother of all battles rages in Baghdad, I am left with the image of a soccer match that was played between Iraqi residents and the British forces in Southern Iraq. 11 Iraqi’s appeared ready with their soccer uniforms, kit and football boots to take on the British Army. With the readymade opportunity to win ‘hearts and minds’ the British army fielded a team of its soldiers. Cheered on by the local population, the Iraqi’s won the match 9 goals to 3, but true to traditions some hearts were indeed won. The British empire might have been born on the playing fields of Eton, but post-Saddam Iraq would do well to learn the lessons of these gestures from the soccer fields of southern Iraq.