Perpetual Ruminations

Reflections on Weather and Furry Mammals

We've had a brutally cold winter so far, lots of snow, and frankly, I'm getting tired of it. My mind is racing ahead to thoughts of longer days, more sunshine, and warmer temperatures. But, it's still early February and we still have the rest of this month and all of March where we can still get cold temperatures and lots of snow.

In despair, I look at the forecast hoping to see relief in the coming days and weeks. I know the days are already getting longer, and the people at the National Weather Service claim that it's supposed to warm up by tomorrow, with nice weather throughout the next week.

Unfortunately, this has been the forecast since late fall when the snow and cold arrived. A false hope dangled like a carrot to lead me through the frigid temperatures and the days of snow. But, by the time we even get close to the dangling forecast, they change it; more cold, more snow, and the carrot is now next week.

What's this got to do with furry mammals? Well, we just had our Groundhog Day, and that little critter also provides us with a forecast. I've read the chances of the groundhog being right range from thirty to forty percent probability of being correct. I, however, would guess it to be fifty percent; seriously, it's like tossing a coin, fifty-fifty.

So, this far into the despair of a harsh winter, whom shall I trust, the groundhog, or the National Weather Service? That little furry mammal predicts once a year and has a fifty percent chance of being right. The weather people provide daily predictions and seem to be wrong a lot more than they are correct.  Sure they get it right once in a while, but that's just a matter of averages; pull the slot handle enough times, and you are bound to win once in a while.

I think I'll go with the groundhog, six more weeks of winter. At least it gives me some hope that I'll shovel my last scoop of snow for this winter and be out enjoying a warm sun in a month and a half. Besides, after dangling the weather carrot a week out in front since last fall, I'm finding it very hard to trust the people at the National Weather Service; they'll have to give some pretty accurate predictions for at least the next six weeks to move equal to the groundhog.