Complex Numbers

To Explore Strange New Worlds

Confidence is overrated.

PROMPT September 8th

What does confidence mean to you? Describe the traits of a confident person. Looking at the traits you listed, would you consider yourself a confident person?

It's interesting that this prompt is for September 8. Because September 8 is Star Trek Day -- the anniversary (54th this year) of the date of the airing of the first episode of Star Trek ("The Man Trap," an unforunately titled episode that was later serialized as "The Unreal McCoy.")

The reason it's interesting is that, as I have been a lifelong Trek fan, and having just binge-watched the entire Original Series, I can think of no better icon of "confidence" than Captain James T. Kirk.

Oh, sure, Picard. Fair enough. I'm not going to get into a debate over which one's a better captain of the Enterprise (besides, it's totally Christopher Pike, fight me). Why, I might as well debate who would win in a fair fight: The Hulk, or Superman (but it would depend on whether we're talking pre- or post-Crisis on Infinite Earths).

Ahem. Anyway. As I was saying, confidence is overrated.

See, in TV shows and movies, or books or plays or whatever, it's easy to write confidence, just like it's easier to write funny dialogue than it is to blast witty banter back and forth if the writer has days or weeks to plan out exactly what's going to be said. Similarly, if you're plotting a story, you know what's going to happen. You're writing it, after all. It's easy to portray your character as confident, or timid, or funny, or whatever attribute you choose for the character. Well. Not "easy," per se; most of us spend our entire lives trying to master the art of characterization.

But compared to being all confident and shit in real life? Cakewalk.

So, Kirk. Level-headed, first and foremost. Can contemplate imminent death without flinching. Calm. Competent - he knows how the Enterprise works, but, more importantly, he trusts and is trusted by his crew because he knows them at least as well as he knows his starship. Patient. Contemplative, but decisive once a decision point is reached.

All of those things are realistic enough, from what I've experienced. What sets Kirk apart from real-life people is that he almost always makes a decision that turns out to be the correct one -- and when he doesn't, it's an important plot point.

We schlubs toiling away in the Real World™ don't have that luxury.

There is, in life, a really remarkably blurry line between confidence and arrogance. I've heard it said that it usually doesn't matter what decision one makes, so long as one makes a decision. This is arrant nonsense. It's entirely possible to make an utterly disastrous decision with complete confidence. That doesn't stop the decision from being disastrous. But it does get you laid, at least, so there's that.

I mean, I'm sure that if you think hard enough, you can come up with a real-world example of a leader who is supremely confident... and almost always a disaster.

No, confidence is a trap. Just like everything else about movies and TV, the portrayal we see is idealized. You come to a decision point and you're like "What would Kirk do" or whatever, even if you don't have phasers, warp drive, or deflector shields. But you're working from incomplete information. You're always working from incomplete information, whereas a fictional character only has the appearance of working from incomplete information.

The important thing in a real-life situation isn't confidence. The important thing is being ready, able and willing to accept responsibility if things don't work out well after you've made the decision.

So... am I a confident person?

I sure as fuck hope not.

Anytime I'm supremely confident about something, that's when I find out I'm most misinformed. Hell, if you asked me "Do you think the sun will rise tomorrow," I'd have to answer, "Maybe. Probably. Might not. Small but nonzero chance it wont, in which case we're boned."

I don't trust confident people. Almost without exception, they're so full of themselves they don't have room for other opinions.

Speaking of Star Trek, in honor of Star Trek Day, I decided to confidently whip up a batch of Romulan Ale. This is the result:

I had some guidance, but I mostly went my own way on it. Obviously, blue curacao figures prominently. The other ingredients will remain a strategic Empire secret, but suffice it to say there's a reason why this stuff is illegal in the Federation.

Maybe next year, I'll try to create some Saurian Brandy, or perhaps Klingon Bloodwine. Because if there's anything I have unearned confidence about, it's my mixological prowess.